⚽ Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 01/07, 22:00
Independiente del Valle vs Manta FC
73%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Independiente del Valle 1612 · Manta FC 1470
| Independiente del Valle | Draw | Manta FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 67% | 22% | 11% |
| Market | 77% | 16% | 7% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.75 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals2.75Independiente del Valle 2.03 · Manta FC 0.72
Most likely total2 goals
🔑 Match keys
- Independiente del Valle usually leads at HT (60%) while Manta FC trails (60%): look at home at HT.
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente del Valle (rating 1612 vs 1470).
- H2H favours Independiente del Valle: 3-2-1.
- Early goals: 1.4 combined avg at HT (1.2 + 0.2) → Over 0.5 HT.
- High corners: 11.7 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Independiente del Valle | Manta FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 1.2 | 1 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.3 | 0.2 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/40/0% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4.1 / 6.6 | 2.5 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.1 | 4 / 0.4 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente del Valle 3–2–1 Manta FC
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/03/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Manta FC | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Independiente del Valle |
| 10/08/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Manta FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Independiente del Valle |
| 20/04/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Independiente del Valle | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Manta FC |
| 19/10/21 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Independiente del Valle | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Manta FC |
| 03/05/21 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Manta FC | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Independiente del Valle |
| 14/12/14 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Independiente del Valle | 4-0 HT 3-0 | Manta FC |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Independiente del Valle
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 4-2 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 28/05 | Rosario Central Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 2-3 | 12 | 6 | L |
| 20/05 | Libertad Asuncion Copa Libertadores |
2-1 | 4-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 14/05 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador Super Cup |
2-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 10/05 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 06/05 | UCV Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 0-2 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 01/05 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
3-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 29/04 | Libertad Asuncion Copa Libertadores |
1-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
Manta FC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/05 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 26/05 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 22/05 | Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador Cup |
0-0 | 5-3 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 18/05 | Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 11/05 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 03/05 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 27/04 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 22/04 | Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 19/04 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 11/04 | Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 8 | L |