⚽ Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 01/07, 22:00
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador vs Mushuc Runa
56%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 1514 · Mushuc Runa 1462
| Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | Draw | Mushuc Runa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 28% | 19% |
| Market | 59% | 23% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals2.44Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 1.58 · Mushuc Runa 0.86
Most likely total2 goals
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (rating 1514 vs 1462).
- H2H favours Universidad Catolica del Ecuador: 2-3-1.
- Early goals: 1.2 combined avg at HT (0.5 + 0.7) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | Mushuc Runa | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.4 | 1.1 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1 | 0.7 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/70/30% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 5 | 2 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.5 | 5.8 / 0.5 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Universidad Catolica del Ecuador 2–3–1 Mushuc Runa
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Mushuc Runa | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador |
| 05/07/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Mushuc Runa | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador |
| 09/03/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Mushuc Runa |
| 31/08/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 5-1 HT 2-1 | Mushuc Runa |
| 22/05/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Mushuc Runa | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador |
| 26/11/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Mushuc Runa | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Universidad Catolica del Ecuador
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/06 | Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 29/05 | El Nacional Ecuador Cup |
1-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 23/05 | Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 16/05 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 14/05 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador Super Cup |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 09/05 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 01/05 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-3 | 2-3 | 11 | 7 | L |
| 27/04 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 24/04 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 18/04 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
Mushuc Runa
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/06 | Gualaceo SC Ecuador Cup |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 31/05 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 9 | D |
| 23/05 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 17/05 | Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 12/05 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-3 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 03/05 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 25/04 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 23/04 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 11 | W |
| 11/04 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 8 | W |