Football · Australia NPL Queensland Women · 30/06, 11:30
Gold Coast Knights (W) vs Lions FC (W)
Expected goals: 3.15 (Gold Coast Knights (W) 2.04 · Lions FC (W) 1.11). The model gives 58% home, 22% draw, 19% away. Over 3 goals (51%) and both teams to score (55%). Most likely score: 1-1.
58%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gold Coast Knights (W) 1583 · Lions FC (W) 1541
| Gold Coast Knights (W) | Draw | Lions FC (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 23% | 19% |
| Market | 59% | 22% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.15 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.15Gold Coast Knights (W) 2.04 · Lions FC (W) 1.11
Over / Under 3Over 3 · 51%
BTTSYes · 55%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gold Coast Knights (W) (rating 1583 vs 1541).
- H2H favours Gold Coast Knights (W): 3-1-1.
- High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gold Coast Knights (W) | Lions FC (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 0.8 | 2.3 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.5 | 1.3 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.9 / 7.5 | 2.2 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 0.9 / 0 | 1.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gold Coast Knights (W) 3–1–1 Lions FC (W)
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/26 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Lions FC (W) | 2-4 HT 1-2 | Gold Coast Knights (W) |
| 05/09/25 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Gold Coast Knights (W) | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Lions FC (W) |
| 12/07/25 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Gold Coast Knights (W) | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Lions FC (W) |
| 03/05/25 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Lions FC (W) | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Gold Coast Knights (W) |
| 22/02/25 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Lions FC (W) | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Gold Coast Knights (W) |
Standings · Australia NPL Queensland Women
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) | 18 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 37 | 15 | 42 |
| 2 | Brisbane City (W) | 17 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 41 | 12 | 36 |
| 3 | Gold Coast Knights (W) | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 38 | 14 | 36 |
| 4 | Lions FC (W) | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 40 | 17 | 33 |
| 5 | Brisbane Olympic FC (W) | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26 | 21 | 26 |
| 6 | Gold Coast United (W) | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 28 | 23 |
| 7 | FQ QAS Women | 19 | 6 | 1 | 12 | 39 | 55 | 19 |
| 8 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 21 | 30 | 17 |
| 9 | Capalaba (W) | 18 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 19 | 41 | 16 |
| 10 | Souths United NPL (W) | 18 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 14 | 62 | 1 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Gold Coast Knights (W) | Lions FC (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) | 1-1 D | 3-1 W |
| Brisbane Olympic FC (W) | 1-1 D | 3-1 W |
| Capalaba (W) | 2-0 W | 2-2 D |
| FQ QAS Women | 4-3 W | 3-2 W |
| Gold Coast United (W) | 5-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) | 0-1 L | 0-2 L |
| Brisbane City (W) | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Souths United NPL (W) | 3-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 3 D 1 L | 5 W 2 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gold Coast Knights (W)
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 2 | D |
| 24/06 | Brisbane Olympic FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 0 | D |
| 20/06 | Capalaba (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 06/06 | FQ QAS Women Australia NPL Queensland Women |
3-1 | 4-3 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 12/05 | Gold Coast United (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
2-0 | 5-0 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 08/05 | Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 12/04 | Brisbane City (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | D |
| 31/03 | Gold Coast United (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 28/03 | FQ QAS Women Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 22/03 | Souths United NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
2-0 | 3-1 | 13 | 0 | W |
Lions FC (W)
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06 | Capalaba (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 20/06 | Brisbane Olympic FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
2-0 | 3-1 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 06/06 | Brisbane City (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 03/06 | FQ QAS Women Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 03/05 | Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 24/04 | Souths United NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
3-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 11/04 | Gold Coast United (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
3-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 31/03 | Souths United NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
3-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 28/03 | Brisbane City (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | L |