Football · Australia NPL Queensland Women · 30/06, 11:30

Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) vs Gold Coast United (W)

Expected goals: 2.91 (Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) 2.23 · Gold Coast United (W) 0.68). The model gives 73% home, 17% draw, 10% away. Under 3 goals (53%) and both teams to score (50%). Most likely score: 2-0.

73%1

73% 17% 10%

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) 1576 · Gold Coast United (W) 1478

	Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)	Draw	Gold Coast United (W)
Our model	72%	19%	9%
Market	73%	16%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 2.91 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis

Expected goals2.91Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) 2.23 · Gold Coast United (W) 0.68

Over / Under 3Under 3 · 53%

BTTSYes · 50%

Most likely total2 goals

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) (rating 1576 vs 1478).
H2H favours Eastern Suburbs NPL (W): 3-2-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)	Gold Coast United (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 0.6	1.1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.6	0.5 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 7.3	1.3 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	0.9 / 0	0.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.22

X5.60

28.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.90

2 (+1.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

How Bet365's odds have moved from when the line opened until now. It's market data, not a recommendation.

1X2

1 1.22 → 1.22 – 0%

X 5.60 → 5.60 – 0%

2 8.50 → 8.50 – 0%

Over/Under 3

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) 3–2–1 Gold Coast United (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Australia NPL Queensland Women	Gold Coast United (W)	2-1 HT 2-0	Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)
28/02/26 Australia NPL Queensland Women	Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)	2-2 HT 1-0	Gold Coast United (W)
12/07/25 Australia NPL Queensland Women	Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)	1-1 HT 0-1	Gold Coast United (W)
03/05/25 Australia NPL Queensland Women	Gold Coast United (W)	0-4 HT 0-2	Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)
22/02/25 Australia NPL Queensland Women	Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)	3-0 HT 1-0	Gold Coast United (W)
28/07/24 Australia NPL Queensland Women	Gold Coast United (W)	0-6 HT 0-1	Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)

Standings · Australia NPL Queensland Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)	18	13	3	2	37	15	42
2	Brisbane City (W)	17	10	6	1	41	12	36
3	Gold Coast Knights (W)	16	11	3	2	38	14	36
4	Lions FC (W)	17	10	3	4	40	17	33
5	Brisbane Olympic FC (W)	18	7	5	6	26	21	26
6	Gold Coast United (W)	17	6	5	6	20	28	23
7	FQ QAS Women	19	6	1	12	39	55	19
8	Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W)	18	5	2	11	21	30	17
9	Capalaba (W)	18	5	1	12	19	41	16
10	Souths United NPL (W)	18	0	1	17	14	62	1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)	Gold Coast United (W)
Capalaba (W)	3-0 W	2-1 W
FQ QAS Women	4-2 W	1-1 D
Souths United NPL (W)	4-1 W	3-0 W
Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W)	3-0 W	1-0 W
Gold Coast Knights (W)	1-0 W	0-5 L
Lions FC (W)	2-0 W	0-3 L
Brisbane Olympic FC (W)	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	6 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Eastern Suburbs NPL (W)

WDWWWWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/06	Brisbane City (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-0	0-0	2	0	D
06/06	Capalaba (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	1-0	3-0	7	0	W
30/05	FQ QAS Women Australia NPL Queensland Women	3-2	4-2	9	1	W
24/05	Gold Coast United (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-2	1-2	13	1	L
17/05	Souths United NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	3-1	4-1	9	1	W
12/05	Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	2-0	3-0	6	1	W
08/05	Gold Coast Knights (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	1-0	1-0	3	1	W
03/05	Lions FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
11/04	Brisbane Olympic FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	1-1	1-1	5	0	D
31/03	Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-0	2-0	14	1	W

Gold Coast United (W)

LLLWLWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/06	FQ QAS Women Australia NPL Queensland Women	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
21/06	Souths United NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	1-0	3-0	3	0	W
06/06	Brisbane Olympic FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-2	1-2	8	0	L
31/05	Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
24/05	Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	2-0	2-1	2	1	W
12/05	Gold Coast Knights (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-2	0-5	0	1	L
09/05	Capalaba (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	1-0	2-1	4	0	W
19/04	Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-3	1-4	3	0	L
11/04	Lions FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-3	0-3	1	0	L
31/03	Gold Coast Knights (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women	0-0	0-3	0	1	L