Football · Australia NPL Queensland Women · 30/06, 12:15
Brisbane City (W) vs Souths United NPL (W)
Expected goals: 4.11 (Brisbane City (W) 3.05 · Souths United NPL (W) 1.06). The model gives 84% home, 10% draw, 6% away. Under 4.5 goals (54%) and both teams to score (57%). Most likely score: 3-1.
84%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Brisbane City (W) 1599 · Souths United NPL (W) 1332
| Brisbane City (W) | Draw | Souths United NPL (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 77% | 14% | 9% |
| Market | 90% | 7% | 3% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.11 goals · Bet365 line 4.5 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals4.11Brisbane City (W) 3.05 · Souths United NPL (W) 1.06
Over / Under 4.5Under 4.5 · 54%
BTTSYes · 57%
Most likely total4 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Brisbane City (W) (rating 1599 vs 1332).
- H2H favours Brisbane City (W): 5-0-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Brisbane City (W) | Souths United NPL (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 0.6 | 0.9 / 3.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.1 | 0.3 / 2.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/50/0% | 0/0/100% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 7 | 1.9 / 3.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 0.8 / 0 | 1.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Brisbane City (W) 5–0–1 Souths United NPL (W)
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/26 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Souths United NPL (W) | 2-8 HT 0-5 | Brisbane City (W) |
| 28/02/26 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Brisbane City (W) | 5-0 HT 2-0 | Souths United NPL (W) |
| 06/07/25 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Souths United NPL (W) | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Brisbane City (W) |
| 26/04/25 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Brisbane City (W) | 4-3 HT 2-1 | Souths United NPL (W) |
| 16/02/25 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Souths United NPL (W) | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Brisbane City (W) |
| 31/08/24 Australia NPL Queensland Women | Brisbane City (W) | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Souths United NPL (W) |
Standings · Australia NPL Queensland Women
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) | 18 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 37 | 15 | 42 |
| 2 | Brisbane City (W) | 17 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 41 | 12 | 36 |
| 3 | Gold Coast Knights (W) | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 38 | 14 | 36 |
| 4 | Lions FC (W) | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 40 | 17 | 33 |
| 5 | Brisbane Olympic FC (W) | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26 | 21 | 26 |
| 6 | Gold Coast United (W) | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 28 | 23 |
| 7 | FQ QAS Women | 19 | 6 | 1 | 12 | 39 | 55 | 19 |
| 8 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 21 | 30 | 17 |
| 9 | Capalaba (W) | 18 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 19 | 41 | 16 |
| 10 | Souths United NPL (W) | 18 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 14 | 62 | 1 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Brisbane City (W) | Souths United NPL (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) | 1-1 D | 1-5 L |
| Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) | 0-0 D | 1-4 L |
| Lions FC (W) | 1-1 D | 0-3 L |
| Brisbane Olympic FC (W) | 2-0 W | 1-3 L |
| FQ QAS Women | 4-1 W | 3-4 L |
| Capalaba (W) | 3-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 3 D 0 L | 0 W 0 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Brisbane City (W) (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Brisbane City (W)
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 0 | D |
| 20/06 | Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 06/06 | Lions FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 19 | 1 | D |
| 31/05 | Brisbane Olympic FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 24/05 | Souths United NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
5-0 | 8-2 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | FQ QAS Women Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | Capalaba (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 12/04 | Gold Coast Knights (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 31/03 | Capalaba (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 28/03 | Lions FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
2-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 0 | W |
Souths United NPL (W)
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Gold Coast United (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 12/06 | FQ QAS Women Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-1 | 3-4 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 07/06 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-2 | 1-5 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 24/05 | Brisbane City (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-5 | 2-8 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 17/05 | Eastern Suburbs NPL (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-3 | 1-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 12/05 | FQ QAS Women Australia NPL Queensland Women |
1-3 | 1-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 08/05 | Brisbane Olympic FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 03/05 | Capalaba (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 0 | L |
| 24/04 | Lions FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-3 | 0-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 31/03 | Lions FC (W) Australia NPL Queensland Women |
0-3 | 0-4 | 3 | 0 | L |