Football · Finland Ykkonen · 28/06, 15:00
KPV vs PK Keski-Uusimaa
55%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · KPV 1410 · PK Keski-Uusimaa 1516
| KPV | Draw | PK Keski-Uusimaa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 23% | 22% | 55% |
| Market | 23% | 22% | 55% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.54 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.54KPV 1.36 · PK Keski-Uusimaa 2.17
Over / Under 3.5Under 3.5 · 51%
BTTSYes · 59%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours PK Keski-Uusimaa (rating 1410 vs 1516).
- High estimate: 3.54 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours KPV: 4-1-1.
- Early goals: 1.3 combined avg at HT (0.4 + 0.9) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| KPV | PK Keski-Uusimaa | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 3.9 | 1.8 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 1.8 | 0.9 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/30/60% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 4.2 | 2 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.2 / 0.2 | 4.3 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · KPV 4–1–1 PK Keski-Uusimaa
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 Finland Ykkonen | PK Keski-Uusimaa | 2-2 HT 0-1 | KPV |
| 12/07/25 Finland Ykkonen | PK Keski-Uusimaa | 3-1 HT 0-1 | KPV |
| 19/04/25 Finland Ykkonen | KPV | 1-0 HT 1-0 | PK Keski-Uusimaa |
| 13/07/24 Finland Ykkonen | PK Keski-Uusimaa | 4-5 HT 1-3 | KPV |
| 04/05/24 Finland Ykkonen | KPV | 3-2 HT 2-2 | PK Keski-Uusimaa |
| 24/02/18 Finland Cup | PK Keski-Uusimaa | 1-5 HT 1-3 | KPV |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
KPV
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06 | JJK Finland Ykkonen |
0-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 05/06 | KUPS Akatemia Finland Ykkonen |
1-1 | 1-4 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 29/05 | FC Inter II Finland Ykkonen |
1-1 | 4-2 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 23/05 | VJS Vantaa Finland Ykkonen |
0-4 | 0-5 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 16/05 | Tampere Utd Finland Ykkonen |
0-2 | 0-6 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 13/05 | SJK II Finland Cup |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 09/05 | SalPa Finland Ykkonen |
0-4 | 0-6 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | OLS Finland Ykkonen |
0-1 | 0-4 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 29/04 | RoPo Finland Cup |
2-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 25/04 | RoPS Finland Ykkonen |
0-3 | 0-7 | 4 | 2 | L |
PK Keski-Uusimaa
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06 | TPV Finland Ykkonen |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 06/06 | JJK Finland Ykkonen |
1-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 29/05 | KUPS Akatemia Finland Ykkonen |
2-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 24/05 | FC Inter II Finland Ykkonen |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 09/05 | Tampere Utd Finland Ykkonen |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 02/05 | SalPa Finland Ykkonen |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 25/04 | OLS Finland Ykkonen |
0-0 | 0-2 | 13 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | RoPS Finland Ykkonen |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 15/04 | KaPa Finland Cup |
0-1 | 2-3 | 0 | 6 | L |
| 11/04 | FC Jazz Finland Ykkonen |
5-0 | 5-1 | 5 | 1 | W |