Football · Finland Ykkonen · 29/06, 17:30
VJS Vantaa vs TPV
Expected goals: 3.55 (VJS Vantaa 2.43 · TPV 1.12). The model gives 65% home, 20% draw, 15% away. Under 3.5 goals (53%) and both teams to score (57%). Most likely score: 2-1.
65%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · VJS Vantaa 1522 · TPV 1432
| VJS Vantaa | Draw | TPV | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 20% | 15% |
| Market | 65% | 20% | 15% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.55 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.55VJS Vantaa 2.43 · TPV 1.12
Over / Under 3.5Under 3.5 · 53%
BTTSYes · 57%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours VJS Vantaa (rating 1522 vs 1432).
- High corners: 14.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| VJS Vantaa | TPV | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.7 / 1.9 | 0.8 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0.4 | 0.4 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.4 / 7.1 | 3.4 / 7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.1 | 3.5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · VJS Vantaa 2–2–2 TPV
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 Finland Ykkonen | TPV | 3-1 HT 2-0 | VJS Vantaa |
| 22/09/24 Finland Kakkonen Group B | VJS Vantaa | 1-1 HT 1-1 | TPV |
| 08/07/24 Finland Kakkonen Group B | VJS Vantaa | 6-2 HT 5-1 | TPV |
| 05/05/24 Finland Kakkonen Group B | TPV | 2-2 HT 1-0 | VJS Vantaa |
| 24/10/21 Finland Kakkonen Group B | TPV | 0-3 HT 0-2 | VJS Vantaa |
| 04/07/21 Finland Kakkonen Group B | VJS Vantaa | 2-5 HT 2-2 | TPV |
Standings · Finland Ykkonen
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampere Utd | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 6 | 28 |
| 2 | JJK | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 35 | 21 | 24 |
| 3 | RoPS | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 12 | 22 |
| 4 | OLS | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 15 | 22 |
| 5 | SalPa | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 22 | 19 |
| 6 | PK Keski-Uusimaa | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 13 | 18 |
| 7 | FC Jazz | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 19 | 14 |
| 8 | VJS Vantaa | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 12 | 13 |
| 9 | FC Inter II | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 36 | 12 |
| 10 | KUPS Akatemia | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 27 | 8 |
| 11 | TPV | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 7 |
| 12 | KPV | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 44 | 5 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | VJS Vantaa | TPV |
|---|---|---|
| RoPS | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| FC Jazz | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| JJK | 2-2 D | 1-2 L |
| FC Inter II | 3-2 W | 1-1 D |
| KUPS Akatemia | 0-0 D | 0-3 L |
| Tampere Utd | 4-0 W | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 1 L | 0 W 1 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: VJS Vantaa (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
VJS Vantaa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06 | RoPS Finland Ykkonen |
0-1 | 0-2 | 18 | 3 | L |
| 06/06 | FC Jazz Finland Ykkonen |
0-0 | 1-1 | 12 | 1 | D |
| 02/06 | JJK Finland Ykkonen |
2-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 26/05 | FC Honka Finland Cup |
0-2 | 1-5 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 23/05 | KPV Finland Ykkonen |
4-0 | 5-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 13/05 | FF Jaro Finland Cup |
2-0 | 5-3 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 09/05 | FC Inter II Finland Ykkonen |
2-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 02/05 | KUPS Akatemia Finland Ykkonen |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 29/04 | FC Futura Finland Cup |
2-0 | 6-4 | – | – | W |
| 24/04 | Tampere Utd Finland Ykkonen |
1-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
TPV
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06 | PK Keski-Uusimaa Finland Ykkonen |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 06/06 | FC Inter II Finland Ykkonen |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 29/05 | Tampere Utd Finland Ykkonen |
0-3 | 0-3 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 23/05 | SalPa Finland Ykkonen |
1-3 | 2-4 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | OLS Finland Ykkonen |
1-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 09/05 | RoPS Finland Ykkonen |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | FC Jazz Finland Ykkonen |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 24/04 | KUPS Akatemia Finland Ykkonen |
0-1 | 0-3 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 18/04 | JJK Finland Ykkonen |
1-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 15/04 | Tampere Utd Finland Cup |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 3 | L |