⚽ Football · Latvia Virsliga · 26/06, 17:00
Ogre United vs Tukums 2000
46%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ogre United 1426 · Tukums 2000 1485
| Ogre United | Draw | Tukums 2000 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 22% | 40% |
| Market | 25% | 24% | 51% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.67 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model beats the market.
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals3.67Ogre United 1.82 · Tukums 2000 1.85
Over / Under 3Over 3 · 54%
BTTSYes · 71%
Likely score1-1
💎 ValueOver 3 goals · +7.4%The model gives this bet 7.4% more probability than its odds (2.02) pay: the bookie has it underpriced.
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tukums 2000 (rating 1426 vs 1485).
- High estimate: 3.67 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- Early goals: 1.5 combined avg at HT (0.6 + 0.9) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ogre United | Tukums 2000 | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 3.3 | 2.1 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1.6 | 0.9 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/10/70% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4 | 1.6 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.2 | 3.8 / 0.2 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Ogre United 0–1–1 Tukums 2000
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/05/26 Latvia Virsliga | Tukums 2000 | 6-1 HT 2-0 | Ogre United |
| 15/03/26 Latvia Virsliga | Ogre United | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Tukums 2000 |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Ogre United
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06 | RFS Latvia Virsliga |
0-3 | 0-6 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 17/06 | FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 13/06 | Riga FC Latvia Virsliga |
0-2 | 1-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 30/05 | FK Auda Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 11 | L |
| 25/05 | SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 9 | D |
| 21/05 | BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga |
0-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 16/05 | SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga |
1-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 12/05 | FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 1-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 07/05 | Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga |
0-2 | 1-6 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 02/05 | RFS Latvia Virsliga |
3-2 | 3-4 | 5 | 1 | L |
Tukums 2000
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 1-4 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 17/06 | FK Auda Latvia Virsliga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 12/06 | BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 30/05 | FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 25/05 | RFS Latvia Virsliga |
0-2 | 1-3 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 20/05 | Riga FC Latvia Virsliga |
1-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 15/05 | SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga |
2-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 11/05 | SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 07/05 | Ogre United Latvia Virsliga |
2-0 | 6-1 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 01/05 | FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga |
3-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 3 | W |