Football · Latvia Virsliga · 30/06, 18:00

FK Liepaja vs Ogre United

Expected goals: 3.3 (FK Liepaja 2.44 · Ogre United 0.87). The model gives 71% home, 18% draw, 11% away. Over 3 goals (51%) and both teams to score (53%). Most likely score: 2-0.

71%1

71% 18% 11%

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Liepaja 1494 · Ogre United 1438

	FK Liepaja	Draw	Ogre United
Our model	71%	18%	11%
Market	72%	17%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 3.3 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).

Model analysis

Expected goals3.3FK Liepaja 2.44 · Ogre United 0.87

Over / Under 3Over 3 · 51%

BTTSYes · 53%

Most likely total3 goals

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Liepaja (rating 1494 vs 1438).
H2H favours FK Liepaja: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Liepaja	Ogre United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.9	1.1 / 3.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.1	0.4 / 1.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	10/10/80%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6.4	2 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	3.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.25

X5.25

28.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.95

2 (+1.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.7

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

How Bet365's odds have moved from when the line opened until now. It's market data, not a recommendation.

1X2

1 1.25 → 1.25 – 0%

X 5.25 → 5.25 – 0%

2 8.00 → 8.00 – 0%

Over/Under 3

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Both teams to score

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Liepaja 2–0–0 Ogre United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/05/26 Latvia Virsliga	FK Liepaja	4-1 HT 1-0	Ogre United
20/03/26 Latvia Virsliga	Ogre United	0-1 HT 0-0	FK Liepaja

Standings · Latvia Virsliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFS	20	17	1	2	50	14	52
2	Riga FC	20	15	4	1	60	19	49
3	FK Auda	20	12	3	5	36	23	39
4	FK Liepaja	20	7	4	9	23	31	25
5	BFC Daugavpils	20	6	6	8	21	25	24
6	FK Jelgava	20	5	7	8	22	35	22
7	SK Super Nova	20	6	3	11	20	32	21
8	Tukums 2000	20	3	8	9	35	39	17
9	SC Grobinas	20	3	8	9	12	30	17
10	Ogre United	20	2	4	14	19	50	10

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Liepaja	Ogre United
RFS	0-2 L	0-6 L
Riga FC	0-4 L	1-4 L
SC Grobinas	0-1 L	1-1 D
SK Super Nova	2-1 W	1-3 L
Tukums 2000	3-0 W	3-2 W
FK Jelgava	1-1 D	2-0 W
FK Auda	1-3 L	0-2 L
BFC Daugavpils	2-1 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: FK Liepaja (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Liepaja

LWWLDWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/06	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-2	1	7	L
21/06	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-3	0-4	4	0	L
16/06	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-1	12	5	L
12/06	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	2-1	2-1	2	7	W
30/05	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	2-0	3-0	8	5	W
26/05	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	0-1	1-1	11	5	D
22/05	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-2	1-3	4	4	L
17/05	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
12/05	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	1-0	4-1	8	3	W
08/05	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-3	0-5	8	2	L

Ogre United

LLLLDLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/06	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-2	3-2	2	5	W
22/06	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-3	0-6	3	4	L
17/06	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	1-0	2-0	9	3	W
13/06	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-2	1-4	4	3	L
30/05	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-2	3	11	L
25/05	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	1-1	1-1	3	9	D
21/05	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-2	1-3	5	1	L
16/05	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	1-2	1-3	3	3	L
12/05	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	0-1	1-4	2	3	L
07/05	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	0-2	1-6	3	0	L