⚽ Football · Latvia Virsliga · 25/06, 17:00
BFC Daugavpils vs Riga FC
63%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · BFC Daugavpils 1455 · Riga FC 1626
| BFC Daugavpils | Draw | Riga FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 21% | 23% | 56% |
| Market | 12% | 18% | 70% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.73 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model beats the market.
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals2.73BFC Daugavpils 0.98 · Riga FC 1.75
Over / Under 3Under 3 · 57%
BTTSYes · 52%
Likely score0-1
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Riga FC (rating 1455 vs 1626).
- H2H favours Riga FC: 4-1-1.
- Early goals: 1.8 combined avg at HT (0.2 + 1.6) → Over 0.5 HT.
- High corners: 10.9 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| BFC Daugavpils | Riga FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.1 | 2.8 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.3 | 1.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 80/10/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.1 | 2.9 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.5 / 0.1 | 3.9 / 0.2 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · BFC Daugavpils 1–1–4 Riga FC
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/05/26 Latvia Virsliga | BFC Daugavpils | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Riga FC |
| 14/03/26 Latvia Virsliga | Riga FC | 4-2 HT 2-0 | BFC Daugavpils |
| 29/09/25 Latvia Virsliga | BFC Daugavpils | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Riga FC |
| 06/07/25 Latvia Virsliga | Riga FC | 1-1 HT 0-1 | BFC Daugavpils |
| 14/05/25 Latvia Virsliga | BFC Daugavpils | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Riga FC |
| 29/03/25 Latvia Virsliga | Riga FC | 1-2 HT 0-0 | BFC Daugavpils |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
BFC Daugavpils
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 16/06 | SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 12/06 | Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 31/05 | FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 26/05 | FK Auda Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 21/05 | Ogre United Latvia Virsliga |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 17/05 | FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 13/05 | RFS Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 08/05 | Riga FC Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 02/05 | SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 7 | D |
Riga FC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga |
3-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 17/06 | RFS Latvia Virsliga |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 13/06 | Ogre United Latvia Virsliga |
2-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga |
3-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 20/05 | Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga |
2-1 | 3-1 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 16/05 | FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga |
0-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 12/05 | FK Auda Latvia Virsliga |
2-1 | 4-1 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 08/05 | BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 03/05 | FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 2 | W |