⚽ Football · Latvia Virsliga · 26/06, 18:00
FK Liepaja vs RFS
58%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FK Liepaja 1473 · RFS 1619
| FK Liepaja | Draw | RFS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 25% | 23% | 52% |
| Market | 16% | 21% | 64% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.03 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model beats the market.
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals3.03FK Liepaja 1.21 · RFS 1.82
Over / Under 3Under 3 · 51%
BTTSYes · 59%
Likely score1-1
🔑 Match keys
- RFS usually leads at HT (70%) while FK Liepaja trails (50%): look at away at HT.
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours RFS (rating 1473 vs 1619).
- H2H favours RFS: 4-1-1.
- Early goals: 2.3 combined avg at HT (0.6 + 1.7) → Over 0.5 HT.
- High corners: 14.3 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FK Liepaja | RFS | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.8 | 3.2 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1.1 | 1.7 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/10/50% | 70/10/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 6.6 | 3.8 / 7.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0 | 3.2 / 0 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Liepaja 1–1–4 RFS
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/05/26 Latvia Virsliga | RFS | 5-0 HT 3-0 | FK Liepaja |
| 13/03/26 Latvia Virsliga | FK Liepaja | 0-1 HT 0-1 | RFS |
| 28/09/25 Latvia Virsliga | FK Liepaja | 2-2 HT 0-1 | RFS |
| 04/07/25 Latvia Virsliga | RFS | 2-1 HT 1-0 | FK Liepaja |
| 14/05/25 Latvia Virsliga | FK Liepaja | 2-1 HT 1-1 | RFS |
| 29/03/25 Latvia Virsliga | RFS | 4-1 HT 0-1 | FK Liepaja |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
FK Liepaja
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Riga FC Latvia Virsliga |
0-3 | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 16/06 | SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 12 | 5 | L |
| 12/06 | SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 30/05 | Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga |
2-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 26/05 | FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 5 | D |
| 22/05 | FK Auda Latvia Virsliga |
0-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 12/05 | Ogre United Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 4-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 08/05 | RFS Latvia Virsliga |
0-3 | 0-5 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | Riga FC Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
RFS
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06 | Ogre United Latvia Virsliga |
3-0 | 6-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 17/06 | Riga FC Latvia Virsliga |
0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 9 | L |
| 13/06 | SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 29/05 | SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 15 | 4 | W |
| 25/05 | Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga |
2-0 | 3-1 | 12 | 4 | W |
| 21/05 | FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 17/05 | FK Auda Latvia Virsliga |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 13/05 | BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 2 | W |
| 08/05 | FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga |
3-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | Ogre United Latvia Virsliga |
2-3 | 4-3 | 8 | 1 | W |