Football · Latvia Virsliga · 29/06, 17:00
FK Jelgava vs SC Grobinas
45%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FK Jelgava 1496 · SC Grobinas 1462
| FK Jelgava | Draw | SC Grobinas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 28% | 27% |
| Market | 45% | 27% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.61FK Jelgava 1.49 · SC Grobinas 1.12
Over / Under 2.5Under 2.5 · 52%
BTTSYes · 53%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours SC Grobinas: 3-2-1.
- Early goals: 1.2 combined avg at HT (0.8 + 0.4) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FK Jelgava | SC Grobinas | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.3 | 0.6 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.3 | 0.4 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 5.3 | 1.9 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.1 | 4.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Jelgava 1–2–3 SC Grobinas
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/05/26 Latvia Virsliga | SC Grobinas | 0-0 HT 0-0 | FK Jelgava |
| 21/03/26 Latvia Virsliga | FK Jelgava | 0-1 HT 0-1 | SC Grobinas |
| 29/08/25 Latvia Virsliga | SC Grobinas | 3-2 HT 3-2 | FK Jelgava |
| 22/06/25 Latvia Virsliga | FK Jelgava | 0-1 HT 0-0 | SC Grobinas |
| 29/04/25 Latvia Virsliga | FK Jelgava | 1-0 HT 1-0 | SC Grobinas |
| 06/03/25 Latvia Virsliga | SC Grobinas | 1-1 HT 0-1 | FK Jelgava |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FK Jelgava
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga |
3-1 | 5-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 17/06 | Ogre United Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 13/06 | FK Auda Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 31/05 | BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 1 | D |
| 26/05 | FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 21/05 | RFS Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 16/05 | Riga FC Latvia Virsliga |
2-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 11/05 | SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 06/05 | SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
SC Grobinas
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | FK Auda Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 20/06 | BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 16/06 | FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 13/06 | RFS Latvia Virsliga |
0-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 29/05 | Riga FC Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 25/05 | Ogre United Latvia Virsliga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 9 | D |
| 20/05 | SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 15/05 | Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga |
2-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 11/05 | FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 07/05 | FK Auda Latvia Virsliga |
0-3 | 0-7 | 6 | 5 | L |