Football · Latvia Virsliga · 29/06, 17:00
FK Auda vs Riga FC
56%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FK Auda 1511 · Riga FC 1617
| FK Auda | Draw | Riga FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 21% | 23% | 56% |
| Market | 21% | 24% | 56% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.17 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.17FK Auda 1.16 · Riga FC 2
Over / Under 3Under 3 · 51%
BTTSYes · 56%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Riga FC (rating 1511 vs 1617).
- High estimate: 3.17 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Riga FC: 5-0-1.
- Early goals: 2.4 combined avg at HT (0.8 + 1.6) → Over 0.5 HT.
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FK Auda | Riga FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.1 | 2.7 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.6 | 1.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 80/10/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.7 | 2.3 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.3 / 0.3 | 3.9 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Auda 1–0–5 Riga FC
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/05/26 Latvia Virsliga | Riga FC | 4-1 HT 2-1 | FK Auda |
| 20/03/26 Latvia Virsliga | FK Auda | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Riga FC |
| 17/02/26 Latvia Super Cup | Riga FC | 4-1 | FK Auda |
| 29/10/25 Latvia Cup | Riga FC | 1-2 HT 1-1 | FK Auda |
| 13/09/25 Latvia Virsliga | Riga FC | 6-0 HT 2-0 | FK Auda |
| 27/06/25 Latvia Virsliga | FK Auda | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Riga FC |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FK Auda
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 15 | 4 | D |
| 21/06 | SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 17/06 | Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 13/06 | FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 30/05 | Ogre United Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 11 | W |
| 26/05 | BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 22/05 | FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga |
2-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | RFS Latvia Virsliga |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 12/05 | Riga FC Latvia Virsliga |
1-2 | 1-4 | 1 | 8 | L |
| 07/05 | SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga |
3-0 | 7-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
Riga FC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | D |
| 21/06 | FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga |
3-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 17/06 | RFS Latvia Virsliga |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 13/06 | Ogre United Latvia Virsliga |
2-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga |
3-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 20/05 | Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga |
2-1 | 3-1 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 16/05 | FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga |
0-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 12/05 | FK Auda Latvia Virsliga |
2-1 | 4-1 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 08/05 | BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 2 | W |