Football · Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand · 28/06, 18:00
Karlslunds IF FK vs Fittja IF
39%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Karlslunds IF FK 1460 · Fittja IF 1526
| Karlslunds IF FK | Draw | Fittja IF | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 25% | 38% |
| Market | 38% | 23% | 39% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.28 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.28Karlslunds IF FK 1.62 · Fittja IF 1.65
Over / Under 3Over 3 · 51%
BTTSYes · 58%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fittja IF (rating 1460 vs 1526).
- High estimate: 3.28 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- Early goals: 1.7 combined avg at HT (0.5 + 1.2) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Karlslunds IF FK | Fittja IF | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.9 | 2.3 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1.1 | 1.2 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 50/10/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.4 | 2.5 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.2 | 2.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Karlslunds IF FK 0–0–1 Fittja IF
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06/26 Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand | Fittja IF | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Karlslunds IF FK |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Karlslunds IF FK
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | FOC Farsta Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 17/06 | BK Forward Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand |
2-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 13/06 | Fittja IF Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 07/06 | IK Sleipner Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand |
0-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 31/05 | Syrianska FC Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 24/05 | Nacka FC Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand |
0-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 16/05 | IFK Haninge Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 09/05 | Lindö FF Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 02/05 | Ragsveds IF Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand |
0-3 | 1-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | Smedby AIS Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand |
1-3 | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | L |
Fittja IF
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | BK Forward Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand |
0-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 13/06 | Karlslunds IF FK Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand |
0-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 06/06 | Nykopings BIS Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 30/05 | Lindö FF Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 23/05 | Örebro Syrianska IF Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 17/05 | IF Eker Örebro Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand |
3-2 | 3-2 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | IFK Haninge Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand |
0-3 | 2-5 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 03/05 | Smedby AIS Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand |
3-1 | 5-3 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 24/04 | Ragsveds IF Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand |
1-1 | 2-4 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 18/04 | FOC Farsta Sweden 2.div Södra Svealand |
2-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 1 | W |