Football · Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland · 27/06, 16:00
BK Astrio vs Hestrafors IF
49%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · BK Astrio 1409 · Hestrafors IF 1506
| BK Astrio | Draw | Hestrafors IF | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 27% | 25% | 49% |
| Market | 28% | 22% | 50% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.18 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Profitable betsBoth teams score: No · 43% · @2.63 · +13%
Expected goals3.18BK Astrio 1.33 · Hestrafors IF 1.85
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hestrafors IF (rating 1409 vs 1506).
- High estimate: 3.18 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- Early goals: 1.8 combined avg at HT (0.4 + 1.4) → Over 0.5 HT.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| BK Astrio | Hestrafors IF | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 2.5 | 2.1 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.9 | 1.4 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 3.3 | 3.3 / 6.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.1 / 0.3 | 2.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · BK Astrio 0–3–0 Hestrafors IF
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/26 Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland | Hestrafors IF | 0-0 HT 0-0 | BK Astrio |
| 13/09/25 Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland | Hestrafors IF | 1-1 HT 1-0 | BK Astrio |
| 18/04/25 Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland | BK Astrio | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Hestrafors IF |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
BK Astrio
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06 | Angelholm Sweden Cup |
0-0 | 0-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 18/06 | Dalstorps IF Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland |
0-1 | 0-4 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 11/06 | Lindome GIF Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 05/06 | IF Boljan Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 30/05 | Onsala BK Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 24/05 | Landvetter IS Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 17/05 | Galtabäcks BK Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 09/05 | Västra Frölunda IF Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland |
1-2 | 3-5 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 03/05 | Qviding FIF Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 26/04 | Torslanda IK Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
Hestrafors IF
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/06 | IK Kongahälla Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 11/06 | Dalstorps IF Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland |
0-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 06/06 | Torslanda IK Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 29/05 | IF Boljan Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland |
2-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 22/05 | Jonsereds IF Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland |
3-1 | 5-1 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 16/05 | Onsala BK Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland |
1-2 | 1-5 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 08/05 | Lindome GIF Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland |
3-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 01/05 | Västra Frölunda IF Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland |
2-1 | 2-4 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 24/04 | Landvetter IS Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 19/04 | BK Astrio Sweden 2.div Västra Götaland |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 2 | D |