⚽ Football · Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland · 26/06, 19:15
Vänersborgs IF vs Stenungsunds IF
46%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Vänersborgs IF 1415 · Stenungsunds IF 1499
| Vänersborgs IF | Draw | Stenungsunds IF | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 24% | 42% |
| Market | 27% | 23% | 50% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.56 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals3.56Vänersborgs IF 1.68 · Stenungsunds IF 1.87
Over / Under 3Over 3 · 55%
BTTSYes · 70%
Most likely total3 goals
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stenungsunds IF (rating 1415 vs 1499).
- High estimate: 3.56 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Stenungsunds IF: 3-1-2.
- Early goals: 1.8 combined avg at HT (0.8 + 1) → Over 0.5 HT.
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Vänersborgs IF | Stenungsunds IF | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 3 | 2.1 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 1.5 | 1 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 6.8 | 1.4 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0.1 | 2.5 / 0.4 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Vänersborgs IF 2–1–3 Stenungsunds IF
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/06/26 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland | Stenungsunds IF | 5-0 HT 2-0 | Vänersborgs IF |
| 29/06/24 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland | Vänersborgs IF | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Stenungsunds IF |
| 06/04/24 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland | Stenungsunds IF | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Vänersborgs IF |
| 12/09/20 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland | Stenungsunds IF | 1-5 HT 0-2 | Vänersborgs IF |
| 07/09/19 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland | Vänersborgs IF | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Stenungsunds IF |
| 24/05/19 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland | Stenungsunds IF | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Vänersborgs IF |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Vänersborgs IF
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/06 | Grebbestads IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland |
3-1 | 3-4 | – | – | L |
| 15/06 | Herrestads AIF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland |
1-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 04/06 | Stenungsunds IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland |
0-2 | 0-5 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 31/05 | Motala AIF FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 22/05 | Husqvarna FF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland |
0-4 | 0-4 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 15/05 | IFK Skövde FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland |
2-1 | 2-6 | 10 | 1 | L |
| 08/05 | Lidköpings FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 01/05 | Vanersborgs FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 24/04 | Skara Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland |
1-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 18/04 | Ahlafors IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland |
0-3 | 0-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
Stenungsunds IF
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/06 | Vanersborgs FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland |
2-1 | 4-2 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 12/06 | Ahlafors IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland |
0-3 | 0-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 04/06 | Vänersborgs IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland |
2-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 31/05 | Husqvarna FF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland |
1-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 23/05 | Lidköpings FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland |
3-0 | 6-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | Motala AIF FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 0 | D |
| 08/05 | Herrestads AIF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland |
0-4 | 1-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 03/05 | IF Karlstad II Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 25/04 | IFK Skövde FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 18/04 | IFK Kumla Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland |
1-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |