⚽ Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 26/06, 19:00
FBK Karlstad vs Hammarby TFF
38%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FBK Karlstad 1549 · Hammarby TFF 1580
| FBK Karlstad | Draw | Hammarby TFF | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 25% | 34% |
| Market | 34% | 25% | 41% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.81 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model beats the market.
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals2.81FBK Karlstad 1.48 · Hammarby TFF 1.32
Over / Under 3Under 3 · 54%
BTTSYes · 57%
Likely score1-1
💎 ValueDraw +5.2%The model gives this bet 5.2% more probability than its odds (1.95) pay: the bookie has it underpriced.
🔑 Match keys
- Early goals: 1.6 avg at HT → Over 0.5 HT.
- High corners: 10.9 combined avg → Over corners.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FBK Karlstad | Hammarby TFF | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1 | 2.2 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5.2 | 2.8 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.7 / 0 | 2.7 / 0.3 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · FBK Karlstad 0–1–1 Hammarby TFF
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10/24 Sweden 1.div Norra | Hammarby TFF | 3-3 HT 2-2 | FBK Karlstad |
| 17/05/24 Sweden 1.div Norra | FBK Karlstad | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Hammarby TFF |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
FBK Karlstad
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/06 | Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 14/06 | FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra |
1-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 09/06 | IK Sturehov Sweden Cup Qualification |
1-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 05/06 | IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra |
1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 31/05 | Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 23/05 | FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | D |
| 17/05 | Umeå FC Sweden 1.div Norra |
0-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 3 | D |
| 14/05 | Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra |
2-1 | 5-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 02/05 | AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
Hammarby TFF
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/06 | FC Järfälla Sweden 1.div Norra |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 14/06 | Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 06/06 | Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 30/05 | AFC Eskilstuna Sweden 1.div Norra |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 7 | W |
| 16/05 | FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra |
0-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 13/05 | Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra |
1-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 02/05 | IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 27/04 | Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra |
0-1 | 2-2 | 14 | 2 | D |