⚽ Football · Sweden 1.div Norra · 28/06, 16:00
Umeå FC vs FC Järfälla
47%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Umeå FC 1502 · FC Järfälla 1441
| Umeå FC | Draw | FC Järfälla | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 21% | 24% |
| Market | 40% | 25% | 35% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.39 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model beats the market.
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals3.39Umeå FC 2.08 · FC Järfälla 1.31
Over / Under 3Over 3 · 51%
BTTSYes · 64%
Likely score2-1
💎 ValueUmeå FC +6.9%The model gives this bet 6.9% more probability than its odds (2.25) pay: the bookie has it underpriced.
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Umeå FC (rating 1502 vs 1441).
- High estimate: 3.39 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- Early goals: 1.5 avg at HT → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Umeå FC | FC Järfälla | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.6 | 1.5 / 2.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.5 | 0.9 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 6.4 | 1.5 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.2 | 3.6 / 0.2 |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Umeå FC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 12/06 | Piteå IF Sweden 1.div Norra |
2-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 07/06 | Sollentuna United FF Sweden 1.div Norra |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 31/05 | IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 24/05 | IF Karlstad Fotboll Sweden 1.div Norra |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 14/05 | Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra |
0-1 | 5-1 | 12 | 4 | W |
| 09/05 | Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra |
2-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 03/05 | Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra |
1-0 | 2-1 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 26/04 | FC Stockholm Internazionale Sweden 1.div Norra |
0-0 | 0-3 | 0 | 3 | L |
FC Järfälla
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06 | FC Arlanda Sweden Cup |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 18/06 | Hammarby TFF Sweden 1.div Norra |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 13/06 | FC Arlanda Sweden 1.div Norra |
1-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 08/06 | IFK Stocksund Sweden 1.div Norra |
1-3 | 1-6 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 03/06 | Vasalunds IF Sweden 1.div Norra |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 23/05 | Gefle IF Sweden 1.div Norra |
1-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Karlbergs BK Sweden 1.div Norra |
2-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 13/05 | Enkopings SK Sweden 1.div Norra |
0-2 | 0-3 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 09/05 | FBK Karlstad Sweden 1.div Norra |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 03/05 | Assyriska Föreningen Sweden 1.div Norra |
2-0 | 3-3 | 2 | 7 | D |