⚽ Football · Australia NPL Victoria Women · 27/06, 07:30
South Melbourne (W) vs Box Hill (W)
43%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · South Melbourne (W) 1556 · Box Hill (W) 1583
| South Melbourne (W) | Draw | Box Hill (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Market | 45% | 24% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.86 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals2.86South Melbourne (W) 1.52 · Box Hill (W) 1.33
Likely score1-1
🔑 Match keys
- H2H favours Box Hill (W): 3-2-1.
- Early goals: 2.8 combined avg at HT (1.5 + 1.3) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- High corners: 10.9 combined avg → Over corners.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| South Melbourne (W) | Box Hill (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.5 / 1 | 2.5 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.5 / 0.6 | 1.3 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/10/20% | 70/10/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4.1 / 6.6 | 2.5 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.8 / 0 | 1.1 / 0 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · South Melbourne (W) 1–2–3 Box Hill (W)
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/03/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women | Box Hill (W) | 1-0 HT 1-0 | South Melbourne (W) |
| 19/07/25 Australia NPL Victoria Women | South Melbourne (W) | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Box Hill (W) |
| 25/04/25 Australia NPL Victoria Women | Box Hill (W) | 1-4 HT 1-3 | South Melbourne (W) |
| 10/08/24 Australia NPL Victoria Women | South Melbourne (W) | 1-3 HT 1-0 | Box Hill (W) |
| 17/05/24 Australia NPL Victoria Women | Box Hill (W) | 3-3 HT 0-3 | South Melbourne (W) |
| 07/07/23 Australia NPL Victoria Women | Box Hill (W) | 1-1 HT 1-0 | South Melbourne (W) |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
South Melbourne (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 06/06 | Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
2-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 30/05 | Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 23/05 | Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
2-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 0 | W |
| 16/05 | Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-3 | 1-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 09/05 | Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
7-1 | 9-2 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 02/05 | Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 24/04 | Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 11/04 | Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
Box Hill (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 07/06 | Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 29/05 | Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
3-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 23/05 | Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-4 | 1-7 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 15/05 | Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
2-1 | 5-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 08/05 | Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 02/05 | Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 24/04 | Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
2-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 18/04 | Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 10/04 | Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 1 | W |