⚽ Football · Australia NPL Victoria Women · 27/06, 07:00
Essendon Royals (W) vs Bulleen Lions (W)
49%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Essendon Royals (W) 1613 · Bulleen Lions (W) 1552
| Essendon Royals (W) | Draw | Bulleen Lions (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 22% | 23% |
| Market | 45% | 22% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.57 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals3.57Essendon Royals (W) 2.17 · Bulleen Lions (W) 1.4
BTTSYes · 68%
Likely score1-1
💎 ValueOver 3 goals · +6%The model gives this bet 6% more probability than its odds (2.00) pay: the bookie has it underpriced.
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Essendon Royals (W) (rating 1613 vs 1552).
- High estimate: 3.57 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Essendon Royals (W): 4-0-1.
- Early goals: 2.4 combined avg at HT (1.9 + 0.5) → Over 0.5 HT.
- High corners: 11.7 combined avg → Over corners.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Essendon Royals (W) | Bulleen Lions (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.6 / 0.6 | 1.9 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.9 / 0.3 | 0.5 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/30/0% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 7.2 | 2.2 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.9 / 0 | 1.3 / 0 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Essendon Royals (W) 4–0–1 Bulleen Lions (W)
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women | Bulleen Lions (W) | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Essendon Royals (W) |
| 12/07/25 Australia NPL Victoria Women | Bulleen Lions (W) | 3-5 HT 2-1 | Essendon Royals (W) |
| 12/04/25 Australia NPL Victoria Women | Essendon Royals (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Bulleen Lions (W) |
| 08/06/24 Australia NPL Victoria Women | Essendon Royals (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Bulleen Lions (W) |
| 18/03/24 Australia NPL Victoria Women | Bulleen Lions (W) | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Essendon Royals (W) |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Essendon Royals (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 06/06 | Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 31/05 | Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 23/05 | Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
4-0 | 7-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
3-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 02/05 | Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 24/04 | Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
4-0 | 7-0 | 12 | 1 | W |
| 19/04 | Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 11/04 | Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
2-1 | 5-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
Bulleen Lions (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 06/06 | Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 02/06 | Spring Hills FC (W) Australia Victoria Cup Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 30/05 | Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-1 | 3-3 | 4 | 0 | D |
| 23/05 | Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 16/05 | Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 08/05 | Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 02/05 | Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
2-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 24/04 | Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | D |
| 18/04 | South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 1 | L |