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⚽ Football · Australia New South Wales NPL Women · 27/06, 07:00

NWS Spirit (W) vs Northern Tigers FC (W)

40%1
40% 23% 37%
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NWS Spirit (W) 1465 · Northern Tigers FC (W) 1525
NWS Spirit (W)DrawNorthern Tigers FC (W)
Our model39%21%40%
Market41%24%34%
Estimated total (ours) 3.85 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.9

The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model beats the market.

🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals3.85NWS Spirit (W) 1.91 · Northern Tigers FC (W) 1.94
Over / Under 3Over 3 · 59%
BTTSYes · 73%
Likely score1-1
💎 ValueOver 3 goals · +6.6%The model gives this bet 6.6% more probability than its odds (1.80) pay: the bookie has it underpriced.

🔑 Match keys

  • Our estimated total (3.85) is far from Bet365's line (3): possible value on Over 3.
  • Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Northern Tigers FC (W) (rating 1465 vs 1525).
  • High estimate: 3.85 goals → consider Over 2.5.
  • H2H favours Northern Tigers FC (W): 3-1-2.
  • Early goals: 1.6 combined avg at HT (0.7 + 0.9) → Over 0.5 HT.
  • Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.

📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

NWS Spirit (W)Northern Tigers FC (W)
Goals for / against (FT)1.6 / 3.42 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)0.7 / 1.70.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)20/10/70%40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)2 / 3.31.2 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)1.9 / 0.12.3 / 0.1

⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · NWS Spirit (W) 2–1–3 Northern Tigers FC (W)

DateHomeScoreAway
28/03/26
Australia New South Wales NPL Women
Northern Tigers FC (W)7-1
HT 4-1
NWS Spirit (W)
16/08/25
Australia New South Wales NPL Women
Northern Tigers FC (W)0-2
HT 0-1
NWS Spirit (W)
17/05/25
Australia New South Wales NPL Women
NWS Spirit (W)1-2
HT 0-1
Northern Tigers FC (W)
02/06/24
Australia New South Wales NPL Women
NWS Spirit (W)2-0
HT 1-0
Northern Tigers FC (W)
02/03/24
Australia New South Wales NPL Women
Northern Tigers FC (W)2-2
HT 0-2
NWS Spirit (W)
22/07/23
Australia New South Wales NPL Women
NWS Spirit (W)0-3
HT 0-1
Northern Tigers FC (W)

📅 Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.

NWS Spirit (W)

LLLLLLWWWD
Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
21/06 Bulls FC Academy (W)
Australia New South Wales NPL Women
 1-2 4-4 33 D
13/06 Western City Rangers (W)
Australia New South Wales NPL Women
 3-0 4-0 72 W
07/06 Sydney Olympic FC (W)
Australia New South Wales NPL Women
 0-0 1-0 35 W
30/05 Gladesville Ravens (W)
Australia New South Wales NPL Women
 2-0 3-1 103 W
22/05 Manly Utd (W)
Australia New South Wales NPL Women
 1-2 1-3 13 L
16/05 University NSW (W)
Australia New South Wales NPL Women
 0-5 3-8 31 L
10/05 Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W)
Australia New South Wales NPL Women
 0-2 0-5 11 L
02/05 Sydney University (W)
Australia New South Wales NPL Women
 0-3 0-6 01 L
26/04 Hills United FC (W)
Australia New South Wales NPL Women
 0-2 0-5 11 L
18/04 Illawarra Stingrays (W)
Australia New South Wales NPL Women
 0-1 0-2 40 L

Northern Tigers FC (W)

LWWLLWWLWD
Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
20/06 Manly Utd (W)
Australia New South Wales NPL Women
 0-0 1-1 56 D
14/06 Illawarra Stingrays (W)
Australia New South Wales NPL Women
 0-0 3-0 32 W
07/06 Gladesville Ravens (W)
Australia New South Wales NPL Women
 0-0 0-1 31 L
31/05 APIA Leichardt (W)
Australia New South Wales NPL Women
 1-0 4-1 12 W
26/05 Illawarra Stingrays (W)
Australia New South Wales Cup Women
 1-0 3-0 90 W
23/05 Bulls FC Academy (W)
Australia New South Wales NPL Women
 0-0 0-2 41 L
17/05 Macarthur Rams (W)
Australia New South Wales NPL Women
 2-1 2-3 12 L
09/05 Sydney Olympic FC (W)
Australia New South Wales NPL Women
 3-0 3-1 06 W
03/05 Hills United FC (W)
Australia New South Wales NPL Women
 1-1 2-1 61 W
25/04 Sydney University (W)
Australia New South Wales NPL Women
 1-1 2-3 43 L