Football · Australia New South Wales NPL Women · 28/06, 09:00
Manly Utd (W) vs APIA Leichardt (W)
57%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Manly Utd (W) 1513 · APIA Leichardt (W) 1535
| Manly Utd (W) | Draw | APIA Leichardt (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 21% | 23% | 57% |
| Market | 21% | 21% | 57% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.29 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.29Manly Utd (W) 1.21 · APIA Leichardt (W) 2.08
Over / Under 3Over 3 · 52%
BTTSYes · 57%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- High estimate: 3.29 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours APIA Leichardt (W): 4-0-2.
- Early goals: 1.4 combined avg at HT (0.5 + 0.9) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Manly Utd (W) | APIA Leichardt (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.3 | 2.2 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.6 | 0.9 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.4 | 2.3 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.5 / 0 | 1.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Manly Utd (W) 2–0–4 APIA Leichardt (W)
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/26 Australia New South Wales NPL Women | APIA Leichardt (W) | 4-1 HT 2-1 | Manly Utd (W) |
| 27/07/25 Australia New South Wales NPL Women | APIA Leichardt (W) | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Manly Utd (W) |
| 27/04/25 Australia New South Wales NPL Women | Manly Utd (W) | 2-0 HT 1-0 | APIA Leichardt (W) |
| 02/06/24 Australia New South Wales NPL Women | Manly Utd (W) | 1-2 HT 0-1 | APIA Leichardt (W) |
| 03/03/24 Australia New South Wales NPL Women | APIA Leichardt (W) | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Manly Utd (W) |
| 09/07/23 Australia New South Wales NPL Women | Manly Utd (W) | 1-2 HT 1-2 | APIA Leichardt (W) |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Manly Utd (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Northern Tigers FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 14/06 | Sydney Olympic FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 07/06 | Macarthur Rams (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 31/05 | Sydney University (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 27/05 | Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W) Australia New South Wales Cup Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 22/05 | NWS Spirit (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Bulls FC Academy (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 10/05 | Illawarra Stingrays (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 03/05 | University NSW (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 26/04 | Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
APIA Leichardt (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Macarthur Rams (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
2-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 14/06 | Hills United FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
2-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 07/06 | Sydney University (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 31/05 | Northern Tigers FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-1 | 1-4 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 24/05 | Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 21/05 | University NSW (W) Australia New South Wales Cup Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 17/05 | Illawarra Stingrays (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
2-0 | 5-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | Gladesville Ravens (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
1-2 | 2-3 | 11 | 3 | L |
| 03/05 | Bulls FC Academy (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 26/04 | University NSW (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |