Football · Australia New South Wales NPL Women · 28/06, 09:00
Sydney University (W) vs Western City Rangers (W)
77%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sydney University (W) 1497 · Western City Rangers (W) 1389
| Sydney University (W) | Draw | Western City Rangers (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 77% | 15% | 8% |
| Market | 77% | 13% | 9% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.66 goals · Bet365 line 4 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.66Sydney University (W) 2.79 · Western City Rangers (W) 0.87
Over / Under 4Under 4 · 57%
BTTSYes · 54%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sydney University (W) (rating 1497 vs 1389).
- High estimate: 3.66 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Western City Rangers (W): 2-0-1.
- Early goals: 1.3 combined avg at HT (1 + 0.3) → Over 0.5 HT.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sydney University (W) | Western City Rangers (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.8 | 0.5 / 2.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.5 | 0.3 / 1.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.2 | 1.4 / 3.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.8 / 0.2 | 2.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sydney University (W) 1–0–2 Western City Rangers (W)
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/26 Australia New South Wales NPL Women | Western City Rangers (W) | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Sydney University (W) |
| 20/07/25 Australia New South Wales NPL Women | Sydney University (W) | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Western City Rangers (W) |
| 21/04/25 Australia New South Wales NPL Women | Western City Rangers (W) | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Sydney University (W) |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sydney University (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Sydney Olympic FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 14/06 | Gladesville Ravens (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 07/06 | APIA Leichardt (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-0 | 0-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 31/05 | Manly Utd (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 23/05 | University NSW (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 17/05 | Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 10/05 | Bulls FC Academy (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-1 | 0-6 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 02/05 | NWS Spirit (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
3-0 | 6-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 25/04 | Northern Tigers FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
1-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 19/04 | Macarthur Rams (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
Western City Rangers (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Gladesville Ravens (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-4 | 0-6 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 13/06 | NWS Spirit (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-3 | 0-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 06/06 | University NSW (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 31/05 | Bulls FC Academy (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-1 | 0-4 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 24/05 | Macarthur Rams (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Sydney Olympic FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
1-0 | 1-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Hills United FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | Western Sydney Wanderers NPL (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-3 | 1-4 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 26/04 | Illawarra Stingrays (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 19/04 | Northern Tigers FC (W) Australia New South Wales NPL Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |