⚽ Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 27/06, 01:00
CT United vs New York City FC II
55%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · CT United 1516 · New York City FC II 1518
| CT United | Draw | New York City FC II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 23% | 32% |
| Market | 62% | 20% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.82 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.8
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals3.82CT United 2.09 · New York City FC II 1.73
Over / Under 3Over 3 · 59%
BTTSYes · 73%
Most likely total3 goals
🔑 Match keys
- Our estimated total (3.82) is far from Bet365's line (3): possible value on Over 3.
- High estimate: 3.82 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- Early goals: 1.8 combined avg at HT (1.1 + 0.7) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CT United | New York City FC II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.6 / 2.1 | 2.3 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.9 | 3.3 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.1 / 0.3 | 4 / 0.3 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · CT United 0–0–1 New York City FC II
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York City FC II | 2-1 HT 0-1 | CT United |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
CT United
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 08/06 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 31/05 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 5-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 25/05 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 17/05 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 04/05 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 6-5 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 26/04 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 19/04 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 12 | 11 | L |
| 11/04 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
New York City FC II
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 5-6 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 18/06 | Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 31/05 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 18/05 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 3-2 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 06/05 | Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 19/04 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 11 | W |