⚽ Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 27/06, 22:00
Portland Timbers II vs The Town
44%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Portland Timbers II 1523 · The Town 1521
| Portland Timbers II | Draw | The Town | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 22% | 32% |
| Market | 43% | 25% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.9 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.9
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals3.9Portland Timbers II 2.14 · The Town 1.76
Over / Under 3Over 3 · 59%
BTTSYes · 74%
Most likely total3 goals
🔑 Match keys
- Our estimated total (3.9) is far from Bet365's line (3): possible value on Over 3.
- High estimate: 3.9 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- Early goals: 1.8 combined avg at HT (0.4 + 1.4) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Portland Timbers II | The Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.5 / 2.5 | 3 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.5 | 1.4 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 60/30/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 5.9 | 2 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.1 / 0.1 | 4.4 / 0.1 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Portland Timbers II 2–2–2 The Town
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/05/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | The Town | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Portland Timbers II |
| 01/03/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Portland Timbers II | 2-1 HT 0-1 | The Town |
| 07/09/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | The Town | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Portland Timbers II |
| 05/05/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | The Town | 5-0 HT 3-0 | Portland Timbers II |
| 27/03/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Portland Timbers II | 1-1 HT 0-0 | The Town |
| 01/09/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Portland Timbers II | 1-2 HT 1-1 | The Town |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Portland Timbers II
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 13/06 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-4 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 06/06 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 31/05 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 24/05 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 18/05 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 14/05 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 9-10 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 03/05 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 19/04 | North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 5-7 | 12 | 4 | L |
The Town
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/06 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 08/06 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 24/05 | North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 6-4 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 18/05 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 14/05 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 4-5 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 09/05 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 6-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 19/04 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 13/04 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 22/03 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 4 | W |