⚽ Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 28/06, 04:00
Ventura County FC vs Real Monarchs SLC
44%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ventura County FC 1481 · Real Monarchs SLC 1473
| Ventura County FC | Draw | Real Monarchs SLC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 22% | 31% |
| Market | 41% | 25% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.86 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.9
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals3.86Ventura County FC 2.14 · Real Monarchs SLC 1.72
Over / Under 3Over 3 · 59%
BTTSYes · 73%
Most likely total3 goals
🔑 Match keys
- Our estimated total (3.86) is far from Bet365's line (3): possible value on Over 3.
- High estimate: 3.86 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Ventura County FC: 3-2-1.
- Early goals: 1.2 combined avg at HT (0.6 + 0.6) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ventura County FC | Real Monarchs SLC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.8 / 3 | 1.6 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4 | 2.5 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.2 | 5.7 / 0.1 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Ventura County FC 3–2–1 Real Monarchs SLC
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/04/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Ventura County FC | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Real Monarchs SLC |
| 15/09/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Real Monarchs SLC | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Ventura County FC |
| 02/06/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Ventura County FC | 3-3 HT 1-2 | Real Monarchs SLC |
| 07/04/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Real Monarchs SLC | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Ventura County FC |
| 06/10/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Real Monarchs SLC | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Ventura County FC |
| 26/08/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Ventura County FC | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Real Monarchs SLC |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Ventura County FC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 5-6 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 07/06 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 31/05 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 10-9 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 07/05 | Sporting Kansas City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 02/05 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-3 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 26/04 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 19/04 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
Real Monarchs SLC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 13/06 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 08/06 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-3 | 0-3 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 30/05 | Sporting Kansas City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 25/05 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 21/05 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 14/05 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 5-4 | 13 | 7 | W |
| 10/05 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 03/05 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 19/04 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |