Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 29/06, 02:00
Minnesota United FC II vs Tacoma Defiance
42%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Minnesota United FC II 1485 · Tacoma Defiance 1535
| Minnesota United FC II | Draw | Tacoma Defiance | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| Market | 43% | 25% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.88 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.88Minnesota United FC II 1.55 · Tacoma Defiance 1.33
Over / Under 3Under 3 · 53%
BTTSYes · 55%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tacoma Defiance (rating 1485 vs 1535).
- H2H favours Tacoma Defiance: 2-3-1.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Minnesota United FC II | Tacoma Defiance | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.7 | 1.8 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.7 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.1 | 2.4 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.3 | 4.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Minnesota United FC II 1–3–2 Tacoma Defiance
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Minnesota United FC II | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Tacoma Defiance |
| 01/06/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Tacoma Defiance | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Minnesota United FC II |
| 04/08/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Tacoma Defiance | 5-1 HT 3-0 | Minnesota United FC II |
| 19/05/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Minnesota United FC II | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Tacoma Defiance |
| 26/08/23 USA MLS Next Pro League | Minnesota United FC II | 2-4 HT 1-2 | Tacoma Defiance |
| 15/05/23 USA MLS Next Pro League | Tacoma Defiance | 4-4 HT 1-1 | Minnesota United FC II |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Minnesota United FC II
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 20/06 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 5-2 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-3 | 1-3 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 17/05 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-4 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 14/05 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 4-2 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 26/04 | North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 20/04 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
Tacoma Defiance
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 18/06 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 31/05 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 23/05 | Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 18/05 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 11/05 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 04/05 | Sporting Kansas City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 6-4 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 27/04 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 18/04 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 13/04 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 7 | L |