Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 29/06, 01:00
St Louis City II vs Austin FC II
43%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · St Louis City II 1511 · Austin FC II 1587
| St Louis City II | Draw | Austin FC II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 23% | 43% |
| Market | 33% | 25% | 42% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +1.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.7St Louis City II 1.73 · Austin FC II 1.97
Over / Under 2.5Over 2.5 · 60%
BTTSYes · 60%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Austin FC II (rating 1511 vs 1587).
- High estimate: 3.7 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours St Louis City II: 4-1-1.
- Early goals: 1.7 combined avg at HT (0.6 + 1.1) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- High corners: 14.1 combined avg → Over corners.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| St Louis City II | Austin FC II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.1 / 3.6 | 2.9 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.9 | 1.1 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4 / 9.8 | 2.3 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.3 | 4.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · St Louis City II 4–1–1 Austin FC II
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/05/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Austin FC II | 4-1 HT 2-0 | St Louis City II |
| 20/09/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Austin FC II | 1-2 HT 1-1 | St Louis City II |
| 12/07/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Austin FC II | 2-4 HT 0-4 | St Louis City II |
| 30/03/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | St Louis City II | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Austin FC II |
| 03/09/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | St Louis City II | 3-2 HT 1-2 | Austin FC II |
| 13/05/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | St Louis City II | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Austin FC II |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
St Louis City II
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 2-5 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 07/06 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 5-4 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 30/05 | North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 7-8 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 18/05 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 15 | 5 | L |
| 09/05 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-4 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 02/05 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-4 | 11 | 2 | L |
| 26/04 | Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 13 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 11/04 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 7-5 | 15 | 6 | W |
Austin FC II
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06 | Sporting Kansas City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-1 | 3-1 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 08/06 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 23/05 | Sporting Kansas City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 18/05 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 14/05 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 11/05 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 03/05 | North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 19/04 | Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 4-2 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 13/04 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 4-5 | 17 | 5 | L |