Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 29/06, 04:00
Los Angeles FC II vs Houston Dynamo II
40%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Los Angeles FC II 1536 · Houston Dynamo II 1583
| Los Angeles FC II | Draw | Houston Dynamo II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 23% | 37% |
| Market | 39% | 25% | 36% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.65 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.65Los Angeles FC II 1.87 · Houston Dynamo II 1.79
Over / Under 3Over 3 · 55%
BTTSYes · 60%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Houston Dynamo II (rating 1536 vs 1583).
- High estimate: 3.65 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Houston Dynamo II: 3-1-1.
- Early goals: 1.4 combined avg at HT (0.7 + 0.7) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Los Angeles FC II | Houston Dynamo II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 2.1 | 2.6 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 1.1 | 0.7 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.9 | 2.3 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.2 | 5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Los Angeles FC II 1–1–3 Houston Dynamo II
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/04/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Houston Dynamo II | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Los Angeles FC II |
| 29/07/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Houston Dynamo II | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Los Angeles FC II |
| 24/03/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Los Angeles FC II | 3-2 HT 1-2 | Houston Dynamo II |
| 04/06/23 USA MLS Next Pro League | Los Angeles FC II | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Houston Dynamo II |
| 17/04/23 USA MLS Next Pro League | Houston Dynamo II | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Los Angeles FC II |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Los Angeles FC II
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 08/06 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 8-7 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 17/05 | Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 04/05 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 27/04 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-3 | 1-4 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 19/04 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 16/04 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 29/03 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 3-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
Houston Dynamo II
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/06 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 07/06 | Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 17/05 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 4-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 09/05 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 04/05 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 26/04 | Sporting Kansas City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 19/04 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 13/04 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 5-4 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 21/03 | North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |