⚽ Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 28/06, 01:00
Atlanta United II vs Crown Legacy
46%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Atlanta United II 1520 · Crown Legacy 1517
| Atlanta United II | Draw | Crown Legacy | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 21% | 32% |
| Market | 45% | 24% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.12 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals4.12Atlanta United II 2.25 · Crown Legacy 1.87
Over / Under 3.5Over 3.5 · 54%
BTTSYes · 76%
Most likely total4 goals
🔑 Match keys
- High estimate: 4.12 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- Early goals: 1.9 combined avg at HT (0.7 + 1.2) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- High corners: 11.8 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Atlanta United II | Crown Legacy | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.8 / 2.2 | 3.3 / 2.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.8 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/10/50% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 5.1 | 3.8 / 6.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.1 / 0.4 | 4.6 / 0.7 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Atlanta United II 2–2–2 Crown Legacy
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Crown Legacy | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Atlanta United II |
| 23/03/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Crown Legacy | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Atlanta United II |
| 21/09/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Crown Legacy | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Atlanta United II |
| 18/08/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Atlanta United II | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Crown Legacy |
| 20/05/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Atlanta United II | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Crown Legacy |
| 20/09/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Crown Legacy | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Atlanta United II |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Atlanta United II
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 14/06 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 9-10 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 07/06 | Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 6-2 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 11/05 | Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 03/05 | Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 11/04 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 04/04 | Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
Crown Legacy
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06 | Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 06/06 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 9 | W |
| 23/05 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 5-6 | 13 | 4 | L |
| 18/05 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
4-0 | 5-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 10/05 | Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 2-3 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 04/05 | Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 7-6 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 4-6 | 12 | 6 | L |
| 19/04 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 12/04 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-2 | 6-4 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 04/04 | Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 6 | W |