⚽ Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 28/06, 01:00
Chattanooga FC vs Chicago Fire II
48%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Chattanooga FC 1523 · Chicago Fire II 1521
| Chattanooga FC | Draw | Chicago Fire II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 23% | 31% |
| Market | 50% | 25% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.81 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.8
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals3.81Chattanooga FC 2.1 · Chicago Fire II 1.72
Over / Under 3Over 3 · 59%
BTTSYes · 73%
Most likely total3 goals
🔑 Match keys
- Our estimated total (3.81) is far from Bet365's line (3): possible value on Over 3.
- High estimate: 3.81 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Chicago Fire II: 2-1-0.
- Early goals: 2.2 combined avg at HT (1.1 + 1.1) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Chattanooga FC | Chicago Fire II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.9 / 2.7 | 2.2 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.4 | 1.1 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5 | 2.2 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.1 | 3.5 / 0.1 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Chattanooga FC 0–1–2 Chicago Fire II
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Chicago Fire II | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Chattanooga FC |
| 06/07/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Chattanooga FC | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Chicago Fire II |
| 08/06/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Chicago Fire II | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Chattanooga FC |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Chattanooga FC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 6-5 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 14/06 | Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 10-9 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 07/06 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 01/06 | Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 2-5 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 24/05 | Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 18/05 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 03/05 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 19/04 | Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 16/04 | Atlanta United USA US Open Cup |
1-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
Chicago Fire II
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 14/06 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 07/06 | Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 23/05 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 14 | 5 | L |
| 10/05 | Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 06/05 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 26/04 | Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 4-6 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 12/04 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 4-2 | 4 | 4 | W |