Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 28/06, 21:00
Toronto FC II vs New England Revolution II
48%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Toronto FC II 1484 · New England Revolution II 1542
| Toronto FC II | Draw | New England Revolution II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 22% | 48% |
| Market | 29% | 24% | 47% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.9 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.9
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.9Toronto FC II 1.71 · New England Revolution II 2.19
Over / Under 3Over 3 · 59%
BTTSYes · 61%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours New England Revolution II (rating 1484 vs 1542).
- High estimate: 3.9 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours New England Revolution II: 4-2-0.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Toronto FC II | New England Revolution II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 2.2 | 2.2 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.3 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.5 | 2.8 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.1 | 4.9 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Toronto FC II 0–2–4 New England Revolution II
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | New England Revolution II | 7-6 HT 0-0 | Toronto FC II |
| 12/09/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | New England Revolution II | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Toronto FC II |
| 04/05/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Toronto FC II | 3-3 HT 1-2 | New England Revolution II |
| 28/03/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | New England Revolution II | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Toronto FC II |
| 09/09/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | New England Revolution II | 8-7 HT 1-1 | Toronto FC II |
| 20/04/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Toronto FC II | 1-1 HT 1-1 | New England Revolution II |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Toronto FC II
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-5 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 14/06 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 2-4 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 06/06 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 30/05 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 25/05 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 5-3 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 08/05 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 04/05 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-5 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 18/04 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
New England Revolution II
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 14/06 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 08/06 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 23/05 | Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 6-5 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 14/05 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 10 | W |
| 10/05 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 04/05 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 5-6 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 18/04 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 13/04 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |