Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 29/06, 01:00
New York Red Bulls II vs Philadelphia Union II
53%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · New York Red Bulls II 1529 · Philadelphia Union II 1458
| New York Red Bulls II | Draw | Philadelphia Union II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 22% | 24% |
| Market | 53% | 23% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.63 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.63New York Red Bulls II 2.18 · Philadelphia Union II 1.44
Over / Under 3Over 3 · 54%
BTTSYes · 59%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours New York Red Bulls II (rating 1529 vs 1458).
- High estimate: 3.63 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours New York Red Bulls II: 4-1-1.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| New York Red Bulls II | Philadelphia Union II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.7 / 2.2 | 1.6 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.8 | 0.2 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 0/60/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1 / 4.4 | 1.4 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0 | 5.1 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · New York Red Bulls II 4–1–1 Philadelphia Union II
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Philadelphia Union II | 1-2 HT 0-0 | New York Red Bulls II |
| 22/03/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York Red Bulls II | 4-5 HT 0-0 | Philadelphia Union II |
| 02/11/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York Red Bulls II | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Philadelphia Union II |
| 12/08/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York Red Bulls II | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Philadelphia Union II |
| 18/03/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Philadelphia Union II | 1-1 HT 1-0 | New York Red Bulls II |
| 27/06/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Philadelphia Union II | 1-4 HT 0-2 | New York Red Bulls II |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
New York Red Bulls II
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 07/06 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 31/05 | Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 7-6 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 25/05 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 18/05 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 08/05 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 03/05 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 26/04 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 19/04 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
Philadelphia Union II
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06 | Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 14/06 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 06/06 | Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 9 | L |
| 30/05 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 23/05 | Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 8-9 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 14/05 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 10 | L |
| 03/05 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 26/04 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 18/04 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |