Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 29/06, 01:00
Orlando City II vs Columbus Crew II
44%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Orlando City II 1539 · Columbus Crew II 1553
| Orlando City II | Draw | Columbus Crew II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 22% | 34% |
| Market | 43% | 24% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.08 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals4.08Orlando City II 2.18 · Columbus Crew II 1.9
Over / Under 3.5Over 3.5 · 53%
BTTSYes · 62%
Most likely total4 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- High estimate: 4.08 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Columbus Crew II: 4-0-2.
- Early goals: 1.4 combined avg at HT (0.8 + 0.6) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Orlando City II | Columbus Crew II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.7 / 2.7 | 2.8 / 2.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.8 | 0.6 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.5 | 2.8 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.2 | 4.3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Orlando City II 2–0–4 Columbus Crew II
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Columbus Crew II | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Orlando City II |
| 10/03/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Orlando City II | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Columbus Crew II |
| 15/05/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | Columbus Crew II | 4-3 HT 2-2 | Orlando City II |
| 01/10/23 USA MLS Next Pro League | Columbus Crew II | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Orlando City II |
| 28/08/23 USA MLS Next Pro League | Orlando City II | 4-1 HT 1-0 | Columbus Crew II |
| 14/05/23 USA MLS Next Pro League | Columbus Crew II | 4-0 HT 0-0 | Orlando City II |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Orlando City II
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 14/06 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 08/06 | Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 3-2 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 01/06 | Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-2 | 5-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 25/05 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 17/05 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 11/05 | Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 04/05 | Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 6-7 | 12 | 4 | L |
| 26/04 | Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 6-4 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 20/04 | Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 8-7 | 3 | 5 | W |
Columbus Crew II
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06 | Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 15/06 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 08/06 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 3-2 | 15 | 3 | W |
| 25/05 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 3-5 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 9-8 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 11/05 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 04/05 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-3 | 1-4 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 18/04 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 6 | W |