⚽ Football · Australia NPL Victoria · 28/06, 07:30
South Melbourne vs Green Gully
55%1
Pick: 1 · 55%
Over 2.5 · 69%
Both to score Yes
Score: 2-1
💎 +12%
🧠 Model analysisExpected goals: 3.55 (South Melbourne 2.15 · Green Gully 1.4). The model gives 55% home, 21% draw, 25% away. Recommendation: South Melbourne (55%, media confidence). Over 2.5 goals (69%) and both teams to score (67%). Most likely score: 2-1. 💎 Value spotted on South Melbourne: +12% over the odds (2.1).
🔑 Match keys
- Value on South Melbourne: the model gives +12% over odds 2.1.
- High estimate: 3.55 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours South Melbourne: 4-1-1.
- Early goals: 1.8 avg at HT → Over 0.5 HT.
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| South Melbourne | Green Gully | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 2.3 | 0.5 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.5 / 1.3 | 0.3 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/10/40% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.7 | 2.4 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.2 / 0 | 4.1 / 0.1 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · South Melbourne 4–1–1 Green Gully
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/03/26 | Green Gully | 0-1 | South Melbourne |
| 03/08/25 | South Melbourne | 1-1 | Green Gully |
| 25/04/25 | Green Gully | 1-0 | South Melbourne |
| 13/07/24 | Green Gully | 0-1 | South Melbourne |
| 12/04/24 | South Melbourne | 3-0 | Green Gully |
| 28/05/23 | South Melbourne | 1-0 | Green Gully |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
South Melbourne
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06 | Bentleigh Greens | 3-1 | 5-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 07/06 | Altona Magic | 2-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 30/05 | Hume City | 0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 25/05 | Avondale | 0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 24/05 | Auckland FC II | 0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 20/05 | Vanuatu United | 3-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 18/05 | Caroline Springs George Cross FC | 0-3 | 0-4 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 12/05 | Bula | 3-1 | 4-2 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | South Island United | 4-1 | 4-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 08/05 | Heidelberg Utd | 0-3 | 0-4 | 1 | 3 | L |
Green Gully
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Hume City | 1-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 05/06 | Avondale | 0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 30/05 | Caroline Springs George Cross FC | 0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 2 | D |
| 22/05 | Heidelberg Utd | 0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 15/05 | Melbourne City FC 2 | 1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 08/05 | St Albans Saints | 0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 01/05 | Oakleigh Cannons | 0-2 | 0-5 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 24/04 | Preston Lions | 0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 17/04 | Dandenong City | 1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 11/04 | Dandenong Thunder | 0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |