⚽ Football · Australia South Australia Premier League · 26/06, 13:00
Adelaide Comets vs Adelaide City
47%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Adelaide Comets 1503 · Adelaide City 1528
| Adelaide Comets | Draw | Adelaide City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 25% | 33% |
| Market | 19% | 22% | 59% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.83 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model beats the market.
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals2.83Adelaide Comets 1.51 · Adelaide City 1.31
Over / Under 3Under 3 · 53%
BTTSYes · 57%
Likely score1-1
💎 ValueUnder 3 goals · +5.2%The model gives this bet 5.2% more probability than its odds (1.98) pay: the bookie has it underpriced.
🔑 Match keys
- H2H favours Adelaide City: 4-0-2.
- Early goals: 1.9 combined avg at HT (1.1 + 0.8) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Adelaide Comets | Adelaide City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.8 | 1.3 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.6 | 0.8 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.2 / 2.7 | 2.8 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.1 | 4.8 / 0.2 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Adelaide Comets 2–0–4 Adelaide City
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/26 Australia South Australia Premier League | Adelaide City | 4-1 HT 2-1 | Adelaide Comets |
| 05/07/25 Australia South Australia Premier League | Adelaide City | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Adelaide Comets |
| 11/04/25 Australia South Australia Premier League | Adelaide Comets | 0-3 HT 0-0 | Adelaide City |
| 17/08/24 Australia South Australia Premier League | Adelaide City | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Adelaide Comets |
| 08/06/24 Australia South Australia Premier League | Adelaide City | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Adelaide Comets |
| 07/03/24 Australia South Australia Premier League | Adelaide Comets | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Adelaide City |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Adelaide Comets
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Adelaide United NPL Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 12/06 | West Adelaide Australia South Australia Premier League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 06/06 | Playford Australia South Australia Premier League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 29/05 | West Torrens Birkalla Australia South Australia Premier League |
1-0 | 1-4 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 23/05 | Para Hills Knights Australia South Australia Premier League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | Metrostars Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 08/05 | Sturt Lions Australia South Australia Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | White City FK Beograd Australia South Australia Premier League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | Fulham United FC Australia Cup Qualifying |
2-3 | 3-3 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 17/04 | Playford Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
Adelaide City
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Metrostars Australia South Australia Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 13/06 | Adelaide United NPL Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 05/06 | Sturt Lions Australia South Australia Premier League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 31/05 | West Adelaide Australia South Australia Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | White City FK Beograd Australia South Australia Premier League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 9 | D |
| 16/05 | Playford Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 12/05 | Cumberland United Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-1 | 0-1 | 11 | 2 | L |
| 09/05 | Campbelltown City Australia South Australia Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 8 | W |
| 01/05 | West Torrens Birkalla Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Sturt Lions Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |