⚽ Football · Australia South Australia Premier League · 26/06, 12:30
West Torrens Birkalla vs Sturt Lions
55%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · West Torrens Birkalla 1524 · Sturt Lions 1434
| West Torrens Birkalla | Draw | Sturt Lions | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 20% | 21% |
| Market | 51% | 22% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.48 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model beats the market.
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals3.48West Torrens Birkalla 2.22 · Sturt Lions 1.25
Over / Under 3.5Under 3.5 · 52%
BTTSYes · 64%
Likely score2-1
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours West Torrens Birkalla (rating 1524 vs 1434).
- High estimate: 3.48 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours West Torrens Birkalla: 4-0-2.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- High corners: 11.2 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| West Torrens Birkalla | Sturt Lions | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.7 | 1.3 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 0.9 | 0.7 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/30/60% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.5 / 6.4 | 1.8 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.1 | 3.8 / 0.1 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · West Torrens Birkalla 4–0–2 Sturt Lions
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/26 Australia South Australia Premier League | Sturt Lions | 2-4 HT 0-3 | West Torrens Birkalla |
| 24/01/25 Australia Friendlies | West Torrens Birkalla | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Sturt Lions |
| 20/07/24 Australia South Australia State League 1 | Sturt Lions | 1-7 HT 1-1 | West Torrens Birkalla |
| 26/04/24 Australia South Australia State League 1 | West Torrens Birkalla | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Sturt Lions |
| 04/06/22 Australia South Australia Premier League | Sturt Lions | 4-2 HT 2-0 | West Torrens Birkalla |
| 26/02/22 Australia South Australia Premier League | West Torrens Birkalla | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Sturt Lions |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
West Torrens Birkalla
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | White City FK Beograd Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 17/06 | White City FK Beograd Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-2 | 0-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 12/06 | Campbelltown City Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 05/06 | Croydon FC Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | Adelaide Comets Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-1 | 4-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 23/05 | Adelaide United NPL Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 19/05 | Fulham United FC Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-1 | 3-3 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 16/05 | West Adelaide Australia South Australia Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 08/05 | Playford Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-2 | 3-3 | 14 | 6 | D |
| 01/05 | Adelaide City Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
Sturt Lions
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Para Hills Knights Australia South Australia Premier League |
4-0 | 6-0 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 13/06 | Metrostars Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 05/06 | Adelaide City Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 30/05 | White City FK Beograd Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 23/05 | Campbelltown City Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 16/05 | Croydon FC Australia South Australia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 08/05 | Adelaide Comets Australia South Australia Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Adelaide United NPL Australia South Australia Premier League |
1-2 | 2-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | Para Hills Knights Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | Adelaide City Australia South Australia Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |