⚽ Football · Norway Division 3 Group 1 · 26/06, 18:00
Valerenga 2 vs FK Union Carl Berner
42%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Valerenga 2 1492 · FK Union Carl Berner 1532
| Valerenga 2 | Draw | FK Union Carl Berner | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 22% | 37% |
| Market | 32% | 22% | 46% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.96 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💰 bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals3.96Valerenga 2 2.03 · FK Union Carl Berner 1.93
Over / Under 3.5Over 3.5 · 52%
BTTSYes · 62%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Union Carl Berner (rating 1492 vs 1532).
- High estimate: 3.96 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- Early goals: 1.7 combined avg at HT (0.6 + 1.1) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- High corners: 10.6 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Valerenga 2 | FK Union Carl Berner | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 3.1 | 2.2 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1.6 | 1.1 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 5.6 | 2.8 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.2 | 4.4 / 0.2 |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Valerenga 2
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 06/06 | Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
1-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 25/05 | Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
0-3 | 1-6 | 11 | 4 | L |
| 15/05 | KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 10/05 | Ullern Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
0-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 02/05 | Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
1-5 | 3-8 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
0-3 | 1-4 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 18/04 | Frigg Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
2-1 | 3-3 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 13/04 | Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
1-1 | 1-4 | 7 | 2 | L |
FK Union Carl Berner
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Grei Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 13/06 | Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 07/06 | IF Ready Norway Cup |
2-1 | 5-6 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 30/05 | Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 25/05 | Ullern Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 14/05 | Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
5-0 | 8-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 02/05 | Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
0-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
0-1 | 1-5 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 20/04 | KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 5 | W |