Football · South Korea K League 2 · 05/07, 12:30
Jeonnam Dragons vs Busan I Park
Expected goals: 2.59 (Jeonnam Dragons 1.21 · Busan I Park 1.38). The model gives 32% home, 28% draw, 40% away. Over 2.5 goals (50%) and both teams to score (53%). Most likely score: 1-1.
40%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jeonnam Dragons 1448 · Busan I Park 1556
| Jeonnam Dragons | Draw | Busan I Park | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 29% | 40% |
| Market | 32% | 28% | 40% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.59Jeonnam Dragons 1.21 · Busan I Park 1.38
Over / Under 2.5Over 2.5 · 50%
BTTSYes · 53%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Busan I Park (rating 1448 vs 1556).
- H2H favours Busan I Park: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Jeonnam Dragons | Busan I Park | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.4 | 2 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.7 | 1.2 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 60/30/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 6 | 1.7 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.3 | 3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jeonnam Dragons 1–2–3 Busan I Park
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09/25 South Korea K League 2 | Busan I Park | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Jeonnam Dragons |
| 15/06/25 South Korea K League 2 | Jeonnam Dragons | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Busan I Park |
| 05/04/25 South Korea K League 2 | Busan I Park | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Jeonnam Dragons |
| 21/11/24 South Korea K League 2 | Jeonnam Dragons | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Busan I Park |
| 15/09/24 South Korea K League 2 | Jeonnam Dragons | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Busan I Park |
| 20/07/24 South Korea K League 2 | Jeonnam Dragons | 2-3 HT 0-2 | Busan I Park |
Standings · South Korea K League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Busan I Park | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 30 | 17 | 32 |
| 2 | Suwon Bluewings | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 12 | 29 |
| 3 | Seoul E-Land FC | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 18 | 26 |
| 4 | Daegu FC | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 19 | 25 |
| 5 | Hwaseong FC | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 17 | 25 |
| 6 | Gimpo FC | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 19 | 14 | 24 |
| 7 | Suwon FC | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 26 | 20 | 23 |
| 8 | Chungnam Asan FC | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 21 | 18 | 20 |
| 9 | Cheonan City | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 18 | 16 | 19 |
| 10 | Seongnam FC | 14 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 17 |
| 11 | Gyeongnam FC | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 23 | 16 |
| 12 | Paju Frontier FC | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 15 | 20 | 14 |
| 13 | Yongin FC | 14 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 18 | 22 | 13 |
| 14 | Chungbuk Cheongju | 14 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 17 | 21 | 13 |
| 15 | Ansan Greeners FC | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 14 | 25 | 11 |
| 16 | Jeonnam Dragons | 14 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 23 | 8 |
| 17 | Gimhae FC 2008 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 11 | 30 | 6 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Jeonnam Dragons | Busan I Park |
|---|---|---|
| Gimhae FC 2008 | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Chungbuk Cheongju | 2-2 D | 2-1 W |
| Chungnam Asan FC | 2-2 D | 2-2 D |
| Hwaseong FC | 0-1 L | 2-3 L |
| Yongin FC | 2-2 D | 2-0 W |
| Cheonan City | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 3 D 3 L | 4 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Busan I Park (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jeonnam Dragons
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/06 | Gimpo FC South Korea K League 2 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 31/05 | Seoul E-Land FC South Korea K League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 23/05 | Gimhae FC 2008 South Korea K League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 12 | 1 | L |
| 16/05 | Chungbuk Cheongju South Korea K League 2 |
0-1 | 2-2 | 13 | 4 | D |
| 10/05 | Seongnam FC South Korea K League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Ansan Greeners FC South Korea K League 2 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 19/04 | Chungnam Asan FC South Korea K League 2 |
2-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 11/04 | Hwaseong FC South Korea K League 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 04/04 | Yongin FC South Korea K League 2 |
0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 28/03 | Cheonan City South Korea K League 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 11 | 5 | L |
Busan I Park
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/06 | Chungnam Asan FC South Korea K League 2 |
2-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 30/05 | Paju Frontier FC South Korea K League 2 |
1-0 | 4-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 17/05 | Hwaseong FC South Korea K League 2 |
2-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 10/05 | Cheonan City South Korea K League 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 03/05 | Gimhae FC 2008 South Korea K League 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 25/04 | Suwon Bluewings South Korea K League 2 |
0-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 18/04 | Suwon FC South Korea K League 2 |
2-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 11/04 | Yongin FC South Korea K League 2 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 04/04 | Gyeongnam FC South Korea K League 2 |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 29/03 | Chungbuk Cheongju South Korea K League 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |