Football · Norway Division 3 Group 5 · 28/06, 14:00
Varegg vs Vard Haugesund
62%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Varegg 1421 · Vard Haugesund 1552
| Varegg | Draw | Vard Haugesund | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 18% | 20% | 62% |
| Market | 18% | 20% | 62% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.73 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.73Varegg 1.28 · Vard Haugesund 2.44
Over / Under 3.5Over 3.5 · 51%
BTTSYes · 59%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vard Haugesund (rating 1421 vs 1552).
- High estimate: 3.73 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- Early goals: 1.4 combined avg at HT (0.3 + 1.1) → Over 0.5 HT.
- High corners: 13.4 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Varegg | Vard Haugesund | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 2.1 | 2.5 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1.1 | 1.1 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/50/50% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 6.3 | 5 / 7.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0 | 3.5 / 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Varegg
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Stord Norway Division 3 Group 3 |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 13/06 | Gneist Norway Division 3 Group 3 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 30/05 | Djerv 1919 Norway Division 3 Group 3 |
1-3 | 2-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Asane Fotball 2 Norway Division 3 Group 3 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 09/05 | Askøy Norway Division 3 Group 3 |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 01/05 | Austevoll Norway Division 3 Group 3 |
0-0 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 25/04 | Førde Norway Division 3 Group 3 |
0-1 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 18/04 | Fyllingsdalen Norway Division 3 Group 3 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 11/04 | Fana Norway Division 3 Group 3 |
1-1 | 2-4 | – | – | L |
| 07/04 | Brann 2 Norway Division 3 Group 3 |
1-3 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
Vard Haugesund
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Austevoll Norway Division 3 Group 3 |
0-0 | 0-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 13/06 | Førde Norway Division 3 Group 3 |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 01/06 | Asane Fotball 2 Norway Division 3 Group 3 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 22/05 | Stord Norway Division 3 Group 3 |
2-1 | 4-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 15/05 | Djerv 1919 Norway Division 3 Group 3 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 11/05 | Brann 2 Norway Division 3 Group 3 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | Os Norway Division 3 Group 3 |
0-2 | 0-6 | – | – | L |
| 25/04 | Gneist Norway Division 3 Group 3 |
3-0 | 5-2 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 18/04 | Fana Norway Division 3 Group 3 |
0-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 11/04 | Fyllingsdalen Norway Division 3 Group 3 |
2-1 | 6-2 | – | – | W |