Football · Norway Division 2 Group 1 · 28/06, 17:00
Sotra vs Jerv
44%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sotra 1517 · Jerv 1606
| Sotra | Draw | Jerv | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 29% | 28% |
| Market | 45% | 25% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.52Sotra 1.42 · Jerv 1.1
Over / Under 2.5Under 2.5 · 51%
BTTSYes · 53%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jerv (rating 1517 vs 1606).
- H2H favours Jerv: 2-1-1.
- Early goals: 2.1 combined avg at HT (1.4 + 0.7) → Over 0.5 HT.
- High corners: 11.9 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sotra | Jerv | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 0.8 | 1.9 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.4 / 0.3 | 0.7 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/60/0% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 6 | 2.8 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0.3 | 2.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sotra 1–1–2 Jerv
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10/25 Norway Division 2 Group 1 | Jerv | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Sotra |
| 08/06/25 Norway Division 2 Group 1 | Sotra | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Jerv |
| 07/07/24 Norway Division 2 Group 1 | Jerv | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Sotra |
| 27/04/24 Norway Division 2 Group 1 | Sotra | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Jerv |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sotra
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Kvik Halden FK Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 14/06 | Brattvåg Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 31/05 | Arendal Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 25/05 | Bjarg Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 14/05 | Vidar Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
2-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | Eik Tønsberg Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
6-0 | 6-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 03/05 | Pors Grenland Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 25/04 | Mjondalen Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
3-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | Træff Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 11/04 | Sandviken Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
Jerv
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Brattvåg Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 14/06 | Sandviken Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 31/05 | Notodden Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 23/05 | Kvik Halden FK Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
2-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Arendal Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Bjarg Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Eik Tønsberg Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
0-2 | 3-2 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 26/04 | Træff Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 18/04 | Pors Grenland Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 12/04 | Mjondalen Norway Division 2 Group 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |