⚽ Football · Australia Queensland Premier League · 27/06, 09:00
Logan Lightning vs Caboolture FC
39%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Logan Lightning 1480 · Caboolture FC 1520
| Logan Lightning | Draw | Caboolture FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 23% | 37% |
| Market | 38% | 22% | 40% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.37 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model beats the market.
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals3.37Logan Lightning 1.74 · Caboolture FC 1.64
Over / Under 3.5Under 3.5 · 54%
BTTSYes · 66%
Likely score1-1
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Caboolture FC (rating 1480 vs 1520).
- High estimate: 3.37 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Caboolture FC: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Logan Lightning | Caboolture FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.6 | 2.4 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 0.8 | 0.9 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 11/56/33% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.8 | 2.6 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.7 / 0 | 3.8 / 0.4 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Logan Lightning 1–3–2 Caboolture FC
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 Australia Queensland Premier League | Caboolture FC | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Logan Lightning |
| 07/06/25 Australia Queensland Premier League | Caboolture FC | 7-0 HT 3-0 | Logan Lightning |
| 01/03/25 Australia Queensland Premier League | Logan Lightning | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Caboolture FC |
| 08/06/24 Australia Queensland Premier League | Caboolture FC | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Logan Lightning |
| 09/03/24 Australia Queensland Premier League | Logan Lightning | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Caboolture FC |
| 06/06/23 Australia Queensland Premier League | Caboolture FC | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Logan Lightning |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Logan Lightning
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06 | Holland Park Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 20/06 | Robina City Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 05/06 | Capalaba FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 27/05 | St George Willawong FC Australia Cup Qualifying |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 23/05 | North Star Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | St George Willawong FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Broadbeach United Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 29/04 | Broadbeach United Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 19/04 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-2 | 2-5 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 10/04 | Ipswich FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 8 | 1 | L |
Caboolture FC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06 | Brisbane Strikers Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 10 | L |
| 06/06 | Ipswich FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 30/05 | Capalaba FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 26/05 | AC Carina Australia Cup Qualifying |
2-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | Robina City Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 15/05 | North Star Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 09/05 | Holland Park Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League |
2-1 | 5-3 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 25/04 | Redlands United Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-2 | 4-2 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 11/04 | Broadbeach United Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 27/03 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |