⚽ Football · Australia Queensland Premier League · 26/06, 12:30
Holland Park Hawks vs Redlands United
40%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Holland Park Hawks 1507 · Redlands United 1513
| Holland Park Hawks | Draw | Redlands United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 21% | 33% |
| Market | 35% | 23% | 43% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.73 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model beats the market.
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals3.73Holland Park Hawks 2.03 · Redlands United 1.7
Over / Under 3.5Over 3.5 · 50%
BTTSYes · 71%
Likely score2-1
💎 ValueHolland Park Hawks or draw · @1.75Safer option: double chance at 1.75 (win or draw). The straight winner paid more but is riskier.
🔑 Match keys
- Redlands United usually leads at HT (70%) while Holland Park Hawks trails (50%): look at away at HT.
- High estimate: 3.73 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Redlands United: 3-0-0.
- Early goals: 1.9 combined avg at HT (0.7 + 1.2) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Holland Park Hawks | Redlands United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.8 | 2.4 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.8 | 1.2 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 70/20/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.3 | 2.3 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0.5 | 3.3 / 0.3 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Holland Park Hawks 0–0–3 Redlands United
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/03/26 Australia Queensland Premier League | Redlands United | 3-2 HT 0-1 | Holland Park Hawks |
| 03/06/25 Australia Queensland Premier League | Redlands United | 4-3 HT 3-1 | Holland Park Hawks |
| 21/02/25 Australia Queensland Premier League | Holland Park Hawks | 1-4 HT 1-2 | Redlands United |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Holland Park Hawks
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06 | Logan Lightning Australia Queensland Premier League |
2-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 19/06 | St George Willawong FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 13/06 | Robina City Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 06/06 | Broadbeach United Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 23/05 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | Brisbane Strikers Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 09/05 | Caboolture FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-2 | 3-5 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 05/05 | Lions FC Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 17/04 | Capalaba FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 12/04 | North Star Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
Redlands United
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Ipswich FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 07/06 | St George Willawong FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | Broadbeach United Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 08/05 | Brisbane Strikers Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Caboolture FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
2-1 | 2-4 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 18/04 | Robina City Australia Queensland Premier League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 10/04 | Capalaba FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 02/04 | Capalaba FC Australia Cup Qualifying |
2-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 28/03 | North Star Australia Queensland Premier League |
3-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 20/03 | Holland Park Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 3-2 | 10 | 5 | W |