⚽ Football · Australia Queensland Premier League · 27/06, 10:00
Broadbeach United vs Capalaba FC
80%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Broadbeach United 1625 · Capalaba FC 1393
| Broadbeach United | Draw | Capalaba FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 75% | 13% | 11% |
| Market | 85% | 9% | 6% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.3 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model beats the market.
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals4.3Broadbeach United 3.11 · Capalaba FC 1.19
Over / Under 4Over 4 · 50%
BTTSYes · 66%
Likely score3-1
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Broadbeach United (rating 1625 vs 1393).
- High estimate: 4.3 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Broadbeach United: 5-0-0.
- Early goals: 1.3 combined avg at HT (0.9 + 0.4) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Broadbeach United | Capalaba FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 0.7 | 1.2 / 3.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.2 | 0.4 / 1.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 0/30/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5.2 | 1.9 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.1 | 2.7 / 0.5 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Broadbeach United 5–0–0 Capalaba FC
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/26 Australia Queensland Premier League | Capalaba FC | 2-5 HT 0-1 | Broadbeach United |
| 12/07/25 Australia Queensland Premier League | Capalaba FC | 1-4 HT 0-1 | Broadbeach United |
| 22/04/25 Australia Queensland Premier League | Broadbeach United | 4-3 HT 2-1 | Capalaba FC |
| 13/07/24 Australia Queensland Premier League | Capalaba FC | 1-4 HT 0-0 | Broadbeach United |
| 13/04/24 Australia Queensland Premier League | Broadbeach United | 4-1 HT 2-1 | Capalaba FC |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Broadbeach United
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | North Star Australia Queensland Premier League |
3-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 13/06 | St George Willawong FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 06/06 | Holland Park Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 23/05 | Redlands United Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 0 | W |
| 16/05 | Ipswich FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 09/05 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 02/05 | Logan Lightning Australia Queensland Premier League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 29/04 | Logan Lightning Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 18/04 | Brisbane Strikers Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 11/04 | Caboolture FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 6 | W |
Capalaba FC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06 | Robina City Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-4 | 1-5 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 20/06 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 0-5 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 05/06 | Logan Lightning Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 30/05 | Caboolture FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 23/05 | Brisbane Strikers Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-3 | 0-8 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Ipswich FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-1 | 2-4 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 24/04 | North Star Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 17/04 | Holland Park Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 11 | 6 | L |
| 10/04 | Redlands United Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 02/04 | Redlands United Australia Cup Qualifying |
1-2 | 3-2 | 3 | 1 | W |