⚽ Football · Norway Division 3 Group 2 · 25/06, 19:00
Strindheim vs Melhus
44%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Strindheim 1522 · Melhus 1554
| Strindheim | Draw | Melhus | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 22% | 36% |
| Market | 29% | 21% | 50% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.71 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model beats the market.
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals3.71Strindheim 1.93 · Melhus 1.78
Over / Under 3Over 3 · 56%
BTTSYes · 71%
Likely score1-1
💎 ValueOver 3 goals +7%The model gives this bet 7% more probability than its odds (1.95) pay: the bookie has it underpriced.
🔑 Match keys
- High estimate: 3.71 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- Early goals: 2.5 avg at HT → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- High corners: 11.2 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Strindheim | Melhus | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.7 / 2.3 | 2.4 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.4 / 1 | 1.1 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/0/40% | 60/30/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5.4 | 2 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0 | 3.8 / 0.4 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Strindheim 3–0–3 Melhus
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09/22 Norway Division 3 Group 5 | Melhus | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Strindheim |
| 24/05/22 Norway Division 3 Group 5 | Strindheim | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Melhus |
| 19/05/22 Norway Cup | Melhus | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Strindheim |
| 11/09/21 Norway Division 3 Group 5 | Melhus | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Strindheim |
| 04/08/19 Norway Division 3 Group 5 | Melhus | 1-6 HT 0-3 | Strindheim |
| 11/05/19 Norway Division 3 Group 5 | Strindheim | 0-1 | Melhus |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Strindheim
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Molde 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
2-1 | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 13/06 | Spjelkavik Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
1-0 | 2-4 | – | – | L |
| 31/05 | Aalesunds FK 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
1-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 25/05 | Nardo Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
2-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 14/05 | Kvik Trondheim Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
0-1 | 3-2 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | Volda Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
2-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Ranheim 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
1-2 | 3-3 | – | – | D |
| 25/04 | Herd Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
4-0 | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 18/04 | NTNUI Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 11/04 | Byåsen Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
0-2 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
Melhus
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06 | Rosenborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 14/06 | Byåsen Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
0-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 30/05 | Molde 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
0-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 22/05 | Orkla Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 14/05 | Spjelkavik Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 09/05 | Nardo Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
2-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 03/05 | Aalesunds FK 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
1-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 27/04 | Kvik Trondheim Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
2-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Volda Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
2-0 | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 13/04 | NTNUI Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
2-0 | 3-3 | 8 | 5 | D |