Football · Norway Division 3 Group 4 · 28/06, 16:00
Vindbjart vs Stabaek 2
66%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Vindbjart 1550 · Stabaek 2 1473
| Vindbjart | Draw | Stabaek 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 18% | 16% |
| Market | 66% | 18% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.2 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals4.2Vindbjart 2.8 · Stabaek 2 1.4
Over / Under 4Under 4 · 51%
BTTSYes · 60%
Most likely total4 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vindbjart (rating 1550 vs 1473).
- High estimate: 4.2 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- Early goals: 1.4 combined avg at HT (0.3 + 1.1) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- High corners: 13.1 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Vindbjart | Stabaek 2 | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.1 | 2.5 / 3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.7 | 1.1 / 1.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 7.3 | 3.6 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0 | 3.3 / 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Vindbjart
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Åkra Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
0-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 13/06 | Haugesund 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
1-0 | 4-0 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 30/05 | Madla Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Flekkerøy Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 16/05 | Mandalskameratene Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 11 | 4 | L |
| 09/05 | Staal Jørpeland Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
0-2 | 3-3 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 02/05 | Odd II Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
2-1 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 26/04 | Viking 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
0-0 | 3-0 | 12 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | Varhaug Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/04 | Brodd Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
Stabaek 2
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Varhaug Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
0-1 | 1-4 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 15/06 | Vag FK Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
1-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 31/05 | Mandalskameratene Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
4-2 | 8-4 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 26/05 | Staal Jørpeland Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 14/05 | Brodd Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 11/05 | Flekkerøy Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
0-4 | 0-6 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Madla Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 27/04 | Haugesund 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
1-1 | 2-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 19/04 | Åkra Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
2-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 13/04 | Hinna Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
0-3 | 3-5 | 11 | 4 | L |