⚽ Football · Norway Division 3 Group 6 · 25/06, 19:30
Brumunddal vs Gjøvik-Lyn
59%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Brumunddal 1413 · Gjøvik-Lyn 1545
| Brumunddal | Draw | Gjøvik-Lyn | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 27% | 25% | 48% |
| Market | 16% | 17% | 67% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.13 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
🧠 Model analysis
Expected goals3.13Brumunddal 1.31 · Gjøvik-Lyn 1.82
BTTSYes · 62%
Most likely total3 goals
💎 ValueUnder 3.5 goals · +6.5%The model gives this bet 6.5% more probability than its odds (2.00) pay: the bookie has it underpriced.
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gjøvik-Lyn (rating 1413 vs 1545).
- High estimate: 3.13 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Brumunddal: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
📊 Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Brumunddal | Gjøvik-Lyn | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 3.7 | 1.2 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1.7 | 0.4 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/40/60% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.3 | 2.8 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0 | 3.6 / 0 |
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Brumunddal 4–0–2 Gjøvik-Lyn
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10/21 Norway Division 3 Group 1 | Brumunddal | 1-4 HT 0-1 | Gjøvik-Lyn |
| 07/09/19 Norway Division 3 Group 5 | Gjøvik-Lyn | 0-1 | Brumunddal |
| 15/06/19 Norway Division 3 Group 5 | Brumunddal | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Gjøvik-Lyn |
| 27/10/18 Norway Division 3 Group 5 | Gjøvik-Lyn | 2-5 HT 0-3 | Brumunddal |
| 29/07/18 Norway Division 3 Group 5 | Brumunddal | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Gjøvik-Lyn |
| 26/04/17 Norway Cup | Gjøvik-Lyn | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Brumunddal |
📅 Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Matches that were 0-0 at half-time are shaded grey.
Brumunddal
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Sandefjord 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 13/06 | Sarpsborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
2-2 | 3-3 | – | – | D |
| 31/05 | Elverum Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
0-0 | 0-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 25/05 | Lillehammer Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
0-4 | 0-8 | – | – | L |
| 14/05 | Rælingen Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
1-3 | 1-4 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Oppsal Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
1-2 | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 02/05 | Ørn Horten Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
0-2 | 1-6 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 26/04 | Bjørkelangen Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
0-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | Fram Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
0-1 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 12/04 | Lyn 1896 II Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
Gjøvik-Lyn
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Ørn Horten Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
0-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 13/06 | Drøbak/Frogn Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 01/06 | Lyn 1896 II Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 25/05 | Elverum Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 14/05 | Lillehammer Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 10/05 | Sarpsborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | Rælingen Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 27/04 | Sandefjord 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 18/04 | Oppsal Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 11/04 | Bjørkelangen Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
2-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |