Football · Norway Division 3 Group 6 · 28/06, 15:00
Rade IL vs Lyn 1896 II
76%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rade IL 1593 · Lyn 1896 II 1482
| Rade IL | Draw | Lyn 1896 II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 76% | 14% | 11% |
| Market | 77% | 13% | 10% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.5 goals · Bet365 line 4.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals4.5Rade IL 3.25 · Lyn 1896 II 1.25
Over / Under 4.5Under 4.5 · 52%
BTTSYes · 59%
Most likely total4 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rade IL (rating 1593 vs 1482).
- High estimate: 4.5 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- Early goals: 2.6 combined avg at HT (1.8 + 0.8) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- High corners: 12.1 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Rade IL | Lyn 1896 II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.9 / 1.8 | 1.7 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.8 / 1.2 | 0.8 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/10/30% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 6.2 | 2.9 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0 | 3.6 / 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rade IL
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Drøbak/Frogn Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 13/06 | Rælingen Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
5-1 | 7-2 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 06/06 | Østsiden Norway Cup |
2-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 30/05 | Lillehammer Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
0-7 | 1-8 | – | – | L |
| 26/05 | Sarpsborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
2-1 | 5-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 14/05 | Oppsal Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 10/05 | Sandefjord 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | Elverum Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
1-2 | 7-3 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Ørn Horten Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
0-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 18/04 | Bjørkelangen Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
6-0 | 9-0 | – | – | W |
Lyn 1896 II
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Lillehammer Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
0-3 | 3-5 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 15/06 | Fram Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 01/06 | Gjøvik-Lyn Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 26/05 | Drøbak/Frogn Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 19/05 | Sarpsborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
3-2 | 3-6 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 11/05 | Rælingen Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
0-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 04/05 | Sandefjord 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 27/04 | Elverum Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
2-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 21/04 | Ørn Horten Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 12/04 | Brumunddal Norway Division 3 Group 6 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |