Football · Norway Division 3 Group 4 · 28/06, 17:00
Varhaug vs Odd II
58%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Varhaug 1517 · Odd II 1449
| Varhaug | Draw | Odd II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 21% | 21% |
| Market | 58% | 20% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.71 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.71Varhaug 2.33 · Odd II 1.38
Over / Under 3.5Under 3.5 · 51%
BTTSYes · 59%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Varhaug (rating 1517 vs 1449).
- High estimate: 3.71 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- Early goals: 1.2 combined avg at HT (0.7 + 0.5) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Varhaug | Odd II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.4 | 1.5 / 2.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.6 | 0.5 / 1.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 0/30/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 3.8 | 3.3 / 6.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.3 | 2.7 / 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Varhaug
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Stabaek 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
1-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 12/06 | Viking 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
0-0 | 0-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 05/06 | Hinna Norway Cup |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 29/05 | Hinna Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 25/05 | Vag FK Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 14/05 | Staal Jørpeland Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
0-1 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 10/05 | Mandalskameratene Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
2-2 | 3-3 | – | – | D |
| 01/05 | Flekkerøy Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Brodd Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
1-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 18/04 | Vindbjart Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
Odd II
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06 | Flekkerøy Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
0-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 15/06 | Staal Jørpeland Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
1-3 | 2-5 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 31/05 | Åkra Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
1-2 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 26/05 | Brodd Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 14/05 | Madla Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
0-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 07/05 | Haugesund 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | Vindbjart Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
1-2 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 26/04 | Hinna Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 3 | D |
| 20/04 | Viking 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
0-1 | 0-4 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 12/04 | Mandalskameratene Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
1-4 | 1-7 | 5 | 0 | L |