Football · Norway Division 3 Group 5 · 28/06, 17:00
Lillestrøm 2 vs Tromso 2
72%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lillestrøm 2 1530 · Tromso 2 1446
| Lillestrøm 2 | Draw | Tromso 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 72% | 16% | 13% |
| Market | 72% | 15% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.28 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals4.28Lillestrøm 2 3.01 · Tromso 2 1.27
Over / Under 4Over 4 · 50%
BTTSYes · 59%
Most likely total4 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lillestrøm 2 (rating 1530 vs 1446).
- High estimate: 4.28 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Lillestrøm 2: 4-0-2.
- Early goals: 2.3 combined avg at HT (1.5 + 0.8) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lillestrøm 2 | Tromso 2 | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.5 / 2.1 | 1.6 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.5 / 1.2 | 0.8 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.9 | 0.5 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.3 | 3.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lillestrøm 2 4–0–2 Tromso 2
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09/22 Norway Division 3 Group 6 | Tromso 2 | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Lillestrøm 2 |
| 14/05/22 Norway Division 3 Group 6 | Lillestrøm 2 | 2-0 | Tromso 2 |
| 12/08/19 Norway Division 3 Group 6 | Tromso 2 | 4-1 HT 2-1 | Lillestrøm 2 |
| 17/06/19 Norway Division 3 Group 6 | Lillestrøm 2 | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Tromso 2 |
| 21/10/17 Norway Division 3 Group 6 | Lillestrøm 2 | 3-0 HT 3-0 | Tromso 2 |
| 11/07/17 Norway Division 3 Group 6 | Tromso 2 | 2-3 | Lillestrøm 2 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lillestrøm 2
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | IL Ulfstind Norway Division 3 Group 5 |
4-0 | 10-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 14/06 | Fauske/Sprint Norway Division 3 Group 5 |
0-1 | 3-4 | – | – | L |
| 30/05 | Alta Norway Division 3 Group 5 |
2-4 | 2-4 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 26/05 | Strømsgodset 2 Norway Division 3 Group 5 |
2-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | Skedsmo Norway Division 3 Group 5 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 09/05 | Harstad Norway Division 3 Group 5 |
1-2 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 03/05 | Finnsnes IL Norway Division 3 Group 5 |
1-0 | 3-2 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 26/04 | Bossekop Norway Division 3 Group 5 |
3-1 | 6-1 | – | – | W |
| 20/04 | Skjetten Norway Division 3 Group 5 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 14/04 | Kongsvinger 2 Norway Division 3 Group 5 |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
Tromso 2
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Skedsmo Norway Division 3 Group 5 |
1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 12/06 | Alta Norway Division 3 Group 5 |
1-1 | 3-3 | – | – | D |
| 01/06 | Strømsgodset 2 Norway Division 3 Group 5 |
2-1 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 22/05 | Kongsvinger 2 Norway Division 3 Group 5 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 14/05 | Fauske/Sprint Norway Division 3 Group 5 |
1-2 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 10/05 | Finnsnes IL Norway Division 3 Group 5 |
0-1 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 03/05 | Bossekop Norway Division 3 Group 5 |
1-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 26/04 | Harstad Norway Division 3 Group 5 |
0-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 19/04 | Fløya Norway Division 3 Group 5 |
1-0 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 12/04 | Skjervøy Norway Division 3 Group 5 |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |